Perry or Romney, polls or prediction markets (Originally posted on Yahoo!'s "The Ticket" Blog)

The political handicappers who take part in the prediction markets are not saying that Perry would lose a primary election to Romney today. Rather, they are betting that Romney is slightly more likely to win when the primaries are actually held in a few months.

The chart below plots one line showing the collective poll results for Perry in the wake of his announcement alongside another showing how the prediction markets have behaved over the same time:

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