Politics vs. the playoffs: Why do predictions change over time? (Originally posted on Yahoo!'s "The Ticket" Blog)

The Phillies season has gone just as expected, with a few bumps along the way. Why has the likelihood changed? Because the march of time has eliminated the uncertainty that a long campaign brings to the outcome.

Then the news of Peyton Manning's injury unfolded, and their likelihood of winning dissipated to near zero. In this situation the movement actually quantifies the value of the missing player (or, in politics, the cost of a campaign mistake).

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