Choosing the Right Prediction and Predictor in the U.S.’s Ongoing Debt Crisis (Originally posted on Yahoo!'s "The Ticket" Blog)

All indicators in the debt crisis pointed to a political dustup that presented very few long-term, real-word consequences for things that genuinely concern most people. Yet press coverage of the crisis often lost sight of both the kinds of outcomes that would really matter in people's lives, and which indicators people could productively consult to learn of likely outcomes. And, same as politics, ordinary citizens should keep in mind a simple caveat lector disclaimer: Always think about what you really want to know–and about what the information you are seeing is actually telling you.

Check at the attatched chart to see how the U.S. had increased short term borrowing costs at the height of last summer's debt cieling crisis. But, long term borrowing costs continued to fall through the entire event.

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