Last week was good for Newt Gingrich in prediction markets (Originally posted on Yahoo!'s "The Signal" Blog)

Mitt Romney remained the clear frontrunner for the nomination with a 68.9 percent likelihood of winning, but Gingrich is the latest anyone-but-Romney candidate at 14 percent likelihood. The former speaker of the house benefited as Herman Cain's sexual harassment problems grew worse and Rick Perry had a memory failure at Wednesday night's Michigan debate.

It is not just me, political pundits, following the recent polls, are finally agreeing that Republican voters are taking a serious look at Gingrich. Yet, his 14.0 percent likelihood of gaining the nomination says less about Gingrich and more about Romney. Gingrich is the most recent person to take the largest share of the likelihood that Romney does not get the nomination, currently at 31.1 percent. Despite his time as speaker of the house, current Republican voters have not vetted him as intensely as they they have previous Romney rivals and, at 14.0 percent, it is still unlikely that he will be propelled to victory after they do.

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