Making big bets on Iowa: Gingrich and Perry, not Romney (Originally posted on Yahoo!'s "The Signal" Blog)

Gambling is about demonstrating confidence in potential wins and losses. Romney is making an investment with a huge potential upside and small potential cost. For Gingrich and Perry a poor showing in Iowa followed by a beating in New Hampshire would leave both limping and bleeding heading into South Carolina; they have serious costs if their bets do not succeed.

There is a meaningful fight in Iowa, but Romney is secure in New Hampshire:

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