State of election markets: 345 Days

My condolences to the family and friends of the victims of the vicious terrorist attack on the Planned Parenthood in Colorado. This was the 5th major terrorist attack at Planned Parenthood since the release of the doctored videos of them in July.

As we drifted from 71 to 64 days until voting starts in Iowa, the Republican primary was relatively uneventful this week. Polling front-runner Donald Trump held steady in the polls and markets, but a series of statements and actions made for a volatile week in the markets for their second place candidate. Market front-runner Marco Rubio was almost completely out of the conversation all week, leaving the smallest crack open for Jeb Bush. Polling second place candidate Ben Carson moved from unlikely to almost negligible in the markets; as the Republican debate shifts to foreign policy, he is even less likely. This gave Chris Christie a small bump to still pretty much negligible in the markets. Meanwhile, Ted Cruz, continues to be the third most viable candidate in the markets despite being fourth in the polls.

On the non-establishment side, Trump had a violate week, but held steady in the markets in second place. Trump mocked a handicapped reporter (although he maintains it was handicapped people in general), continues to insistent that thousands of people in New Jersey celebrated 9/11 (despite that not being true), and otherwise just made stuff up. He held steady because he did not just stay solid in the polls, but actually climbed last week. That being said, he also made the establishment even more jittery about the potential damage he cause to the party if he got the nomination while simultaneously holding them back by threatening to run as a third party candidate if they coalesce against him. Hence, stable price, but a lot of volatility.

Cruz showed a steady rise as his poll numbers continue to climb. Cruz is in the same camp as Trump and Carson, in that he is a non-establishment candidate with a wild card personality. His support is strong, but not wide; he is a Tea Party candidate. The establishment will oppose him just as strongly at Trump or Carson, if forced.

On the establishment side, Rubio had a small, slow decline this week; the market front-runner barely registered in the discussion. There literally is not much to say about him, because there were no stories about him this week. The slight decline shows a concern over his inability to strike while the time is right. Bush holds on to viability as Rubio cannot close him out. Christie will not rise much higher than non-negligible, due to his lack of viability in the general election relative to Rubio or Bush due to his increasingly disastrous term as governor of New Jersey.

Vertical Lines: Nothing this week …

Sources: Betfair, Hypermind, PredictIt, http://twopointoh.predictwise.com/politics/2016RepNomination

Debbie Wasserman Schultz probably tried to have a debate on Thanksgiving, but was unable to get a sponsor! Seriously, nothing happened …

Vertical Lines: Nothing this week …

Sources: Betfair, Hypermind, PredictIt, http://twopointoh.predictwise.com/politics/2016DemNomination

The next debate is the Republican debate on Tuesday, December 15. The Democrats will meet on Saturday, December 19 (because, you know, everyone wants to watch politics on Saturday nights during holiday breaks).