State of election markets: 365 Days or 1 Year!

Today begins the one year countdown to Election Day 2016. Serious candidates have already come and gone (looking at you Scott Walker and Joe Biden), but while the Democratic side is basically wrapped up, the Republican side is still in a tight battle.

The top contenders for the Republican and Democratic nomination stayed stable this week. Marco Rubio continues to consolidate Republican establishment support, while Hillary Clinton, thanks to a limited debate schedule, basically walks away with the Democratic nomination.

The most interesting movement of the week was from Ben Carson, who went from unlikely to really unlikely on the strength of questions about his resume. There was no smoking gun; it is unlikely that any individual discrepancy will sink his candidacy. Instead, there is concern about both the confluence of questions and about what else the public does not know about the un-vetted candidate.

The markets were not too impressed with Donald Trump’s Saturday Night Live performance in either direction.

Vertical Lines: Nothing too interesting this week …

Sources: Betfair, Hypermind, PredictIt, http://twopointoh.predictwise.com/politics/2016RepNomination

Apparently the Democrats had a Friday night forum where the candidates were interviewed one at time by Rachel Maddow. I have a lot of respect for Maddow, but I assume the goal of putting a debate (1) on Friday night (2) where the candidates do not interact, is to bury it. And, as I missed it (and I am political junkie) there is not much more I can say except to congratulate Debbie Wasserman Shultz, Chairwoman of the DNC, for securing an easy victory for Clinton. Now we just wait to see if that is actually a good thing for the Democratic Party.

Vertical Lines: Nothing of interest this week …

Sources: Betfair, Hypermind, PredictIt, http://twopointoh.predictwise.com/politics/2016DemNomination

Fox is hosting another debate on Wednesday, November 10. With Fox hosting the debate it is going to be hard for the candidate to cry liberal bias. But, the only channel further to the right of Fox is CNBC (it started the Tea Party, Fox just jumped onto the bandwagon), so who knows!