State of election markets: 282 Days

A quick look at the Republican and Democratic nomination markets over the last two weeks heading into the first votes in Iowa. One thing is certain, both of these charts are going to see a lot of movement in about 24 hours. With neither Iowa Caucus certain, any outcome is going to affect the race dramatically.

1) Donald Trump is favored at 60% in Iowa. If he wins Iowa he has knocked Ted Cruz almost out of the election, leaving him as the sole non-establishment candidate. A loss in Iowa to Cruz would put Trump and Cruz on near equal footing as Trump would still be favored heading into New Hampshire.

2) Marco Rubio is favored to come in a strong third in Iowa. Anything equal to or better than that will put the other establishment candidates in a really tight position going into New Hampshire. Anything worse than expected could be devastating for him, as Jeb Bush, John Kasich, and Chris Christie will see that as an invitation to keep pecking at him.

PredictWise20160131a

Vertical Lines: Thursday, January 28 debate (without Trump).
Sources: Betfair, Hypermind, PredictIt, http://twopointoh.predictwise.com/politics/2016-president-republican-nomination/

Hillary Clinton will basically secure the nomination if she wins in Iowa. She is a 75% favorite over Bernie Sanders. A loss would put her closer to 60% to win the nomination. She will lose New Hampshire, but still be more than 50% to win the nomination.

PredictWise20160131b

Vertical Lines: No major events this week.
Sources: Betfair, Hypermind, PredictIt, http://twopointoh.predictwise.com/politics/2016-president-democratic-nomination/