Oscars 2019

February 24, 2019 at 7:59 PM ET: Here are the final market predictions (not much changed):

February 23, 2019 at 8 PM ET: I am going to blog from here on Oscar night. Here are the latest predictions. This will update live during the presentation! Normally markets get 19-20 binary "correct". But, I should warn everyone that the average top prediction is the lowest I have ever seen, just shy of 70 percent. Which is means that if these predictions are well calibrated, there will be just 16-17 correct tomorrow.