The Big Question and our Larger Vision When we were approached by The Atlantic in early 2018, we developed a bold idea together. Develop a map (both geo-spatial and geographic) of what we as researchers call affective polarization, or political tolerance. The method: collect a (fairly) large survey of about 2,000 respondents, isolate demographic Read more

Identifying the most and least politically tolerant county in the US – PredictWise analytics and reporting by The Atlantic Today, The Atlantic published a story identifying the least and most politically tolerant counties in the US and along the way ranking every county on a political tolerance scale, using analytics by PredictWise. The story is Read more

February 24, 2019 at 7:59 PM ET: Here are the final market predictions (not much changed): February 23, 2019 at 8 PM ET: I am going to blog from here on Oscar night. Here are the latest predictions. This will update live during the presentation! Normally markets get 19-20 binary "correct". But, I should warn Read more

Segmentations powering digital ad targeting: Targeting advertising on the basis of individual-level segmentations is not a new idea: other organizations have collected custom survey data – time- and cost-intensive, to create static segmentation of persuadables, as a one-size-fits-all solution for digital targeting of the entire campaign. PredictWise offers a radically different approach. We have created Read more

Just this weekend the mainstream media highlighted three ways that its unwritten rules actually encourages extreme and non-normative political behavior. 1) If the mainstream media sees details of a policy, it will tear it apart. But, if it does not see details of a policy, it will take its supporter's word for what it does, Read more

Note: this post is a work in progress. I may update from time to time as I try to formulate my thoughts. Any budding political theorist want to work on an academic version of this post, drop me an email … There are two ways to gain legitimacy as news organization covering US politics (1) Read more

This is an update to a piece I wrote in early 2018. Republicans, media, and sadly Democrats all seem to believe that Republicans are into the Constitution. But, they are not: Republicans hate the Constitution. Here is the full text of the Constitution. You should read it, it is not that long. In this post Read more

President Trump is compromised to Russia. Russia knows a lot of secrets about both his business and political dealings which, if revealed by Russia, would/should cost Trump (and his family) politically, financially, and possibly criminally. Here is the briefest, Twitter-friendly overview: Business. This is just what we know: what is really scary is what we do Read more

Antisemites think they have Jewish-Americans in a tight spot. When a Jewish American says something about opposing an ethno-nationalist state in America, they retort: what about Israel! They have an ethno-nationalist government! Do you think they should have open-borders?!? Here is the problem: 1) As Americans, Jewish-Americans are under no obligation to have an opinion Read more

  PredictWise Calibrated Polling explained  Late in the cycle, we introduced a new method we dubbed PredictWise Calibrated Polling. As a brief reminder, this is Calibrated Polling: As we have maintained through the cycle, estimating who people will vote for, conditional on them turning out, was easier than estimating the composition of the turnout composition of the Read more