PredictWise Audiences: Real world outcomes that can decide the election!

Those of you who follow PredictWise regularly will know that PredictWise Audiences achieved much better return metrics in Katie Porter's CA-45 district when put to the test against a rival Audience provided by a consulting group that shall remain unnamed. In short, our Audiences generated 2-4x lift in crucial return metrics such as video through Read more

Data Journalist Publisher is Unfortunate Pundit

Could not help myself, so my future reference I made a quick list of how Nate Silver is a really great data journalist and publisher, but a really bad pundit and not a progressive. My best guess is that he a moderate, possibly right-of-center on policy, who is who just has a really bad understanding Read more

PredictWise: 20-For-20

A little bit of personal background: Two very different feelings dominated on the morning after the 2016 election: anger/shame/frustration/sadness regarding the State of the Union (Not Strong!), and a sense of validation, namely that large-scale continuous data collection via disparate modes, paired with the right analytics, can yield actionable insights able to help us dissect Read more

Misinformation has a Republican bias. The question is: why?

GOP misinformation campaign Republicans and president Trump have been engaging in full-blown misinformation campaigns for years now – everything from crowd-sizes at Trump speeches to illegal immigrants voting to promises of universal coverage and rhetoric around a stronger healthcare amidst dropping numbers of insured. No question, building a policy argument substantially based on blatant lies is Read more

The Atlantic's The Geography of Partisan Prejudice: Post Scriptum

  The Big Question and our Larger Vision When we were approached by The Atlantic in early 2018, we developed a bold idea together. Develop a map (both geo-spatial and geographic) of what we as researchers call affective polarization, or political tolerance. The method: collect a (fairly) large survey of about 2,000 respondents, isolate demographic Read more

The Atlantic's The Geography of Partisan Prejudice: Method Addendum

Identifying the most and least politically tolerant county in the US – PredictWise analytics and reporting by The Atlantic Today, The Atlantic published a story identifying the least and most politically tolerant counties in the US and along the way ranking every county on a political tolerance scale, using analytics by PredictWise. The story is Read more

Oscars 2019

February 24, 2019 at 7:59 PM ET: Here are the final market predictions (not much changed): February 23, 2019 at 8 PM ET: I am going to blog from here on Oscar night. Here are the latest predictions. This will update live during the presentation! Normally markets get 19-20 binary "correct". But, I should warn Read more

PredictWise Segmentation/Audiences Technology

Segmentations powering digital ad targeting: Targeting advertising on the basis of individual-level segmentations is not a new idea: other organizations have collected custom survey data – time- and cost-intensive, to create static segmentation of persuadables, as a one-size-fits-all solution for digital targeting of the entire campaign. PredictWise offers a radically different approach. We have created Read more

Mainstream Media's Bad Incentives

Just this weekend the mainstream media highlighted three ways that its unwritten rules actually encourages extreme and non-normative political behavior. 1) If the mainstream media sees details of a policy, it will tear it apart. But, if it does not see details of a policy, it will take its supporter's word for what it does, Read more