Fundamental Models and 2016 Presidential Election

Prediction markets move the fundamental model upward about 15 percentage points for each contested Electoral College election. I have run my presidential fundamental model (the underlying academic paper is joint work with Patrick Hummel) and posted the results on the PredictWise Presidential General Election forecast page. The key takeaway is that the fundamental model predicts a Read more

State of election markets: 254 Days

On Saturday, February 20 Trump won the South Carolina primary and Marco Rubio came in second. This expected, but (1) Trump won bigger than expected, (2) with was pretty devastating for Ted Cruz. If Cruz had any reach, he would have taken, at least, second in South Carolina. On Tuesday, February 23 Trump won the Read more

Super Tuesday Update

Hillary Clinton is now expected to take all states on March 1-6, except Vermont and Maine. Should she accomplish this, it would really end the primary race a week from today. On the Republican side, Donald Trump is expected to carry all but Texas (going to Ted Cruz) and Puerto Rico (going to Marco Rubio).

Oscar Night Coverage

12:10 AM ET: 17-7 … eh … The average probability for the favorite was 75% (exactly) … 1 less win than expected. Not as sexy (or dramatic) as the 20 and 21 in the past 2 years respectively, but stoked to see a well-calibrated outcome! 11:28 PM ET: 14-6 … ok, not breaking any records tonight, but Read more

Super Tuesday is Coming

All predictions are live at, but the below table outlines everything at of 12:00 PM ET on February 27. 1) Hillary Clinton is in a strong position for Super Tuesday. She is heavily favored in all but, Colorado, Massachusetts, Minnesota, and Vermont. She will certainly lose Vermont to Bernie Sanders, but she is favored in Read more

A look at 2012 v. 2016

Donald Trump is consistently polling higher than Mitt Romney ever polled at this point in the 2012 election. Below is the aggregated polling reported by Huffington Post's Pollster in 2012 and 2016. Trump is incredibly flat in his support. He appears to be having difficultly crossing 40% support, but so did the 2012 eventual nominee Read more

Election Night: NV GOP

[table table-id=1637] 9:25 PM ET: Updated Markets: (Win) Trump 92%, Rubio 5%, Cruz 2% (Place) Trump 99%, Rubio 80%, 21% 6:05 PM ET: Table is up with Trump at 89% to win followed by Rubio at 8% and Cruz at 3%. Rubio is 62% to take second place or 70% to "place" and Cruz is 31% Read more

Election Night: SC GOP & NV DEM

[table table-id=1631] [table table-id=1606] 1:15 PM ET: Rubio is now 50% to come in 2nd. If he does come in 2nd he will be over 50% to win the nomination. It would crush Cruz to come in 3rd in South Carolina, a conservative southern state. And, it would mean Bush is done and Kasich is Read more

Trump, Sanders, and S&P 500

The cover article in Barron's asks a seemingly simple question: "Trump and Sanders" Are they killing the stock market?" This is a topic that I have addressed lightly (both in depth and seriousness) in the past. For the sake of this piece we will ignore Barron's mistake of correlating national polling numbers with the S&P Read more