President Trump published this list of accomplishments on his 500th day in office early last month, let's revisit it through a more critical lens: 1) American economy is still humming along, despite the best efforts of President Trump to undermine it with a stupid trade war. Trump cites job numbers which are clearly just moving Read more
Welcome to the PredictWise Daily 20180718: 1) Serious people need to accept end-game of Trump Doctrine: he wants to shift United States from security agreement with Canada and Europe to one with Russia. There needs to be public debate on how incredibly stupid this is for US security and prosperity. 2) Republican leadership is really into callous Read more
Serious people in media and politics need to accept what Republican President Trump is clearly demonstrating with his actions and implicitly stating with his words: he wants to shift the United States from a security agreement with Canada and Europe to one with Russia. 1) Republican President Trump wants to sever United States security agreements with Read more
This is part 3 of the PredictWise series on congressional districts that are seen as competitive in the 2018 election according to PredictWise and Cook: The PredictWise Progressive Pendulum, with new entries coming right here on PredictWise every Tuesday. Instead of the ins-and-outs of the horse-race, this series sheds light on the ideological landscape in these districts. Read more
Welcome to the PredictWise Daily 20180716: 1) President Trump/Republicans want Russia to defeat US in cyber-war, because investigation and defensive actions would (1) embarrass Republicans who were helped by Russia (2) cut-off further help from Russia. Think about that for a second: President of the Untied States wants US to lose ongoing war for personal Read more
Welcome to the PredictWise Daily 20180712: 1) House Republicans Hate Democracy (and America): trashing a FBI agent for having personal politics, while ignoring the fact the FBI did not leak information on Trump and trashed Clinton, handing Trump the election, is bad. Trying to force the FBI to compromise ongoing investigation into ongoing cyber-attack is worse. 2) Read more
Welcome to the PredictWise Daily 20180711: 1) President Trump is good at blowing good things up and terrible at building anything. Beautifully written Twitter thread by Claire Berlinski, which I will sum up as America built current world structures to provide US: dominance, security, economics. We get back many times what we pay in, but hide our Read more
Welcome to the PredictWise Daily 20180710: 1) President Trump literally does not understand how NATO works. All nations pay dues, but they are relatively small and every nation is good. Otherwise, the goal is 2% defense budgets by 2024. So, no one owes US anything. Media is downplaying the risks that Trump may end NATO, making it Read more
1) Quick recap of the Quarters: markets had the winner in 3 of 4 games (now 9 of 12 overall) with Brazil as the most likely to be upset, losing to Belgium. 2) Semifinals: France 54% and England 59% are both light favorites over Belgium and Croatia. 3) Finals: France would be a heavy favorite if Read more
Welcome to the PredictWise Daily 20180709: 1) Old enough to remember when Republican railed against activist judges, even as Republican Supreme Court ended voting rights, worker organizing, etc. Assume that Republican concern over activist judges will fade even further with a solid 5-4 majority, versus a somewhat solid 5-4 majority. It is not just women's right, Read more