PredictWise: 20-For-20

The Progressive Ecosystem post 2016 – non-continuous, monopolistic, non-collaborative A little bit of personal background: Two very different feelings dominated on the morning after the 2016 election: anger/shame/frustration/sadness regarding the State of the Union (Not Strong!), and a sense of validation, namely that large-scale continuous data collection via disparate modes, paired with the right analytics, Read more

Misinformation has a Republican bias. The question is: why?

GOP misinformation campaign Republicans and president Trump have been engaging in full-blown misinformation campaigns for years now – everything from crowd-sizes at Trump speeches to illegal immigrants voting to promises of universal coverage and rhetoric around a stronger healthcare amidst dropping numbers of insured. No question, building a policy argument substantially based on blatant lies is Read more

The Atlantic's The Geography of Partisan Prejudice: Post Scriptum

  The Big Question and our Larger Vision When we were approached by The Atlantic in early 2018, we developed a bold idea together. Develop a map (both geo-spatial and geographic) of what we as researchers call affective polarization, or political tolerance. The method: collect a (fairly) large survey of about 2,000 respondents, isolate demographic Read more

The Atlantic's The Geography of Partisan Prejudice: Method Addendum

Identifying the most and least politically tolerant county in the US – PredictWise analytics and reporting by The Atlantic Today, The Atlantic published a story identifying the least and most politically tolerant counties in the US and along the way ranking every county on a political tolerance scale, using analytics by PredictWise. The story is Read more

Oscars 2019

February 24, 2019 at 7:59 PM ET: Here are the final market predictions (not much changed): February 23, 2019 at 8 PM ET: I am going to blog from here on Oscar night. Here are the latest predictions. This will update live during the presentation! Normally markets get 19-20 binary "correct". But, I should warn Read more

PredictWise Segmentation/Audiences Technology

Segmentations powering digital ad targeting: Targeting advertising on the basis of individual-level segmentations is not a new idea: other organizations have collected custom survey data – time- and cost-intensive, to create static segmentation of persuadables, as a one-size-fits-all solution for digital targeting of the entire campaign. PredictWise offers a radically different approach. We have created Read more

Mainstream Media's Bad Incentives

Just this weekend the mainstream media highlighted three ways that its unwritten rules actually encourages extreme and non-normative political behavior. 1) If the mainstream media sees details of a policy, it will tear it apart. But, if it does not see details of a policy, it will take its supporter's word for what it does, Read more

Republicans Hate the Constitution

This is an update to a piece I wrote in early 2018. Republicans, media, and sadly Democrats all seem to believe that Republicans are into the Constitution. But, they are not: Republicans hate the Constitution. Here is the full text of the Constitution. You should read it, it is not that long. In this post Read more

Trump and Russia

President Trump is compromised to Russia. Russia knows a lot of secrets about both his business and political dealings which, if revealed by Russia, would/should cost Trump (and his family) politically, financially, and possibly criminally. Here is the briefest, Twitter-friendly overview: Business. This is just what we know: what is really scary is what we do Read more