PredictWise Daily 20180624: Republicans Hate the Rule of Law

Welcome to the PredictWise Daily 20180624. My goal is to write Sundays through Thursdays, publish around 9 PM ET. It will be a short recap of what was most interesting that day. I will limit it to three bullet points. Today: 1) Republicans Hate the Rule of Law, but love order: President Trump issued an Read more

Completely Closed Borders: Republicans costly policy position

President Trump talks a lot about undocumented immigrants and does horrible things to them including: ripping children from their parents and putting them in cages, and trying to deport Dreamers and their parents. But while he uses his executive power to reek havoc on undocumented immigrants, his legislative fight is very focused on legal immigration, Read more

Immigration and Healthcare

Above and beyond anything in this column: the Republican immigration policy of separating children from their parents and putting them into cages is abhorrent morally and a terrible policy for the United States. It is a political policy that is designed to be so cruel, that refugees, asylum seekers, anyone desperate for a better life, Read more

Criminal Justice Reform

On Friday, June 15, 2018 President Trump's Campaign Chair was sent to jail until his trial. (1) It is very common in the United States to be in jail between arrest and trial: approximately 536,000 people are in jail, right now, awaiting trial. (2) The vast majority, about 75 percent, of those people are accused of non-violent Read more

Russia Collusion

Every day people (i.e., trolls) tweet at me about how President Trump did not collude with and/or is not compromised to Russia (and/or another foreign power). Reminding everyone of the overwhelming amount of evidence of the relationship between Team Trump and Russia is boring, but important. So, here is a post that I will keep Read more

Polling: Ripe for Transformation (Part 1 of 4)

This is the first piece of our series, Evolution of Polling Samples from RDD to RDE In part 2: we discuss Online Panels which are increasingly replacing RDD. In part 3: we discuss Assisted Crowdsourcing, a brand-new form of polling. In part 4: we introduce Random Device Engagement (that is what we do!). Part 1: Read more

Polling: Online Panels (Part 2 of 4)

This is the second piece of our series, Evolution of Polling Samples from RDD to RDE In part 1: we describe a polling industry that is ripe for transformation as Random Digit Dialing (RDD) becomes increasingly tenuous. In part 3: we discuss  Assisted Crowdsourcing, a brand-new form of polling. In part 4: we introduce Random Device Read more

Trump is a Racist

President Trump is a racist. His racism is meaningful beyond the vulgarity of a racist president: it affects his policy. US immigration policy is certainty affected by Trump's view that African countries are "shitholes". President Trump created a committee to help increase voter suppression of minority voters. People will languish in prison because of lack Read more