Mormon vote boosts Romney’s comfortable odds in Nevada (Originally posted on Yahoo!'s "The Signal" Blog)

The first thing that most people associate with Nevada is Vegas. About 70 percent of the population lives in Clark County, home to Las Vegas and the surrounding metro area. In 2008, Barack Obama won the county by nearly 20 percentage points. But Nevada's primary contest is closed, meaning only registered Republicans can vote. In 2008, about 50 percent of the Republican caucus goers were from outside of Clark County. And, most importantly for Romney, roughly 1 in 5 were Mormons, who voted 9 in 10 for Romney.

Mormons are 74 percent Republican and they have proven extremely loyal in voting for Romney, who is a leader in the Church. Thus, even relatively small Mormon populations loom large in the Republican primary, as most Mormons are Republican, they have a high voting rate, and are extremely likely to support Romney as a block:

Click Here for the Full Text.

Florida preview: Romney is going to win (Originally posted on Yahoo!'s "The Signal" Blog)

Mitt Romney holds a commanding lead in Florida's primary, with a 98.6 percent likelihood of victory, according to the political prediction markets. Newt Gingrich is 99.9 percent likely to place (i.e., first or second place–almost certainly the latter). Rick Santorum is 85 percent likely to take the bronze from Ron Paul, who holds the remaining 15 percent for third.

Click Here for the Full Text.

Gingrich faltering as markets reconsider Romney (again) (Originally posted on Yahoo!'s "The Signal" Blog)

Just after the South Carolina primary, where Newt Gingrich won a dominating victory, the former speaker inched up to an almost 30 percent likelihood of winning the nomination, according to prediction market data. At the time, it was a major foray in Romney territory; the markets had given the former Massachusetts governor as high as a 90 percent chance of snagging the nomination in mid-January. Now it appears that Gingrich's surge is dying. As of Thursday afternoon, he was back down to a 10.9 percent chance in the markets heading into the Florida primaries this Tuesday.

Gingrich's plummeting odds correlate with a drop in the polls in Florida. Shortly after South Carolina, several polls gave him a meaningful lead of 9 points, 8 points, and 5 points. (And of course, like South Carolina, Florida borders Gingrich's former home state of Georgia.) But more recent polls look increasingly promising for Romney, showing leads of 2 points, 8 points, and 8 points. The two large leads come from the same organizations that gave Gingrich 8 and 9 point leads just a few days prior. The markets also now favor a Romney victory in Florida, as the follow graph demonstrates:

Click Here for the Full Text.

As Gingrich’s fate rises, so does Obama’s (Originally posted on Yahoo!'s "The Signal" Blog)

As he prepares for his third State of the Union address–and, he hopes, not his last–Barack Obama's likelihood of reelection has soared in the last few days to 56.8 percent, the highest it has been since last July. This movement correlates with Newt Gingrich's increased likelihood of gaining the Republican nomination, now at 29.7 percent, up from about 5 percent. This upward trend also correlates with a simultaneous downward movement of Mitt Romney's likelihood of winning the presidency if he wins the nomination, now at 44.0, down from about 48 percent. We utilize prediction market data for these likelihoods.

Click Here for the Full Text.

Gingrich makes small but significant climb in odds of winning nomination (Originally posted on Yahoo!'s "The Signal" Blog)

Newt Gingrich has won the South Carolina primary, elevating him to a 25 percent chance to win the Republican nomination in online futures markets. This is the first serious assault we've seen on Romney's once iron grip on this particular set of markets in months, which have barely wavered until tonight in their conviction that he will eventually win the nomination. Still, he continues to be the heavy frontrunner with about a 2 in 3 (66 percent) likelihood of gaining the nomination.

Click Here for the Full Text.

The real reason no one impersonates dead voters: High risk, little benefit (Originally posted on Yahoo!'s "The Signal" Blog)

So here's the question: if the most conservative estimates are correct and 10,000 eligible voters are disenfranchised so that 100 non-eligible votes can be stopped, do you think that that is a fair deal for democracy? What if the more mainstream estimates are true and the number is closer to 100,000 eligible voters being disenfranchised so that 10 fraudulent votes can be stopped? Whichever figures you use, the math comes out squarely against these controversial measures.

Click Here for the Full Text.

Romney nosediving in South Carolina as Gingrich surges (Originally posted on Yahoo!'s "The Signal" Blog)

Just yesterday, the political prediction markets gave Mitt Romney an 85 percent chance of winning Saturday's primary in South Carolina. With this morning's news that Rick Perry is dropping out and endorsing Newt Gingrich, Gingrich appears to be consolidating the anyone-but-Romney vote. (This in spite of the fact that Santorum is now the officially winner in Iowa by 34 votes as of today, and has the backing of evangelical Christian leaders.)

At present writing, South Carolina's primary is now a dogfight between Romney at about 60 percent and Gingrich at 40 percent, according to prediction market data.

Click Here for the Full Text.

Running Out of Alternatives to Romney (Originally posted on Yahoo!'s "The Signal" Blog)

With Jon Huntsman's exit from the Republican primary race there are five main candidates left, and Mitt Romney holds a commanding lead among them with a 89.1 percent chance of gaining the Republican nomination, according to prediction market data. Ron Paul follows him at 4.1 percent, Newt Gingrich at 2.5 percent, and Rick Santorum at 1.2 percent. Since the dust settled in New Hampshire, Romney has slowly drifted upwards in his likelihood of winning the Republican nomination as it becomes more likely there would be no coalescing around a single challenger in South Carolina.

Click Here for the Full Text.

For Romney, Iowa and New Hampshire Were Meaningless (Originally posted on Yahoo!'s "The Signal" Blog)

Mitt Romney went into Iowa as the heavy favorite to win the Republican nomination and he leaves New Hampshire in the same position. Unlike the see-saw like swings in the Democratic nomination battle of 2008 or the steady movement in the Republican nomination battle of 2008, all of the candidates' positions remained relatively static during the entire period surrounding these first two primary contests.

Considering the following chart, which shows the market-based odds over the course of the Iowa and New Hampshire contests for both this and last cycle:

Click Here for the Full Text.

The real New Hampshire winner is the final non-Romney contender (Originally posted on Yahoo!'s "The Signal" Blog)

Mitt Romney is heavily favored to win both the New Hampshire primary and, eventually, the Republican nomination. Utilizing prediction market data, Romney has a 97.3 percent likelihood to win the New Hampshire primary and an 80.0 percent likelihood to win the nomination. Those are great odds for the former Massachusetts governor, but they are not absolute. Here are a few things to remember if you're banking on that other 20 percent.

Click Here for the Full Text.