The Senate votes today on the repeal of the "Don't Ask Don't Tell" law. News of the vote caused PredictWise's likelihood of repeal to skyrocket to 88%, implying that the controversial law is very likely to be over-turned today.
When you think about 2012 Presidential nominations you are likely thinking about Palin, Romney, and the Republicans. But, as the year comes to close and the 111th Congress end on December 17th or so, I urge you keep an eye on the Democratic ticket. An editoral in today's Washington Post urges a Democrat to run to the left of the President to force him to hold firm on taxes, war, and social issues. First, it would be difficult for Biden to do that from within the adminstration and Clinton is not that person, thus for this to happen it would have to be an outside option. We will make sure to add that person, and you will see it coming with Obama falling. Second, notice the discrepencies between Betfair and Intrade on Hillary and Biden.
The probability of Don't Ask Don't Tell being eliminated by the end of the year tanked to just above 10% after the Democratic defeat on Election Day. But, today brought good news to those trying for repeal, the Democrats are making a top priority in the lame duck session …
Welcome to PredictWise!
This site is the outgrowth of my dissertation work in individual-level expectations, forecasts, and decision making. Working with my good friend Andrew Leonard, we have created this site to serve several functions:
1) Provide probabilities of upcoming events created with the latest antilogarithms. These will frequently include aggregated individual-level responses from polls, predication markets, and (once we build up a big enough community) users of this site.
2) Test the latest methodology of capturing individual-level expectations. In plain English, this is online laboratory for experimental polling and users get to play along … it is fun, I promise!
3) A blog that encourages an ongoing discussion of the latest experiments in polling and prediction markets.
Please comment on tables, polls, anything … but, most of all, enjoy!
David Rothschild, PhD Candidate
University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School
For more information on my work please visit My Academic Website.