Trump for GOP and Democrat for President

There is nothing scientific about this chart. CORRELATION DOES NOT EQUAL CAUSALITY. But, a regression of daily probability for Trump as the Republican nominee and the Democratic nominee winning the general election is highly statistically significant. The intercept is 58 and the coefficient is 0.11. What that means is that if you assume the Democratic Read more

Trump Delegate Math Still Adds Up

For the #NeverTrump-ers, yesterday was a rare day of good news. We finally got a new poll of Wisconsin, and it showed Trump at 35%, trailing Cruz's 36%, and several points behind Trump's national average of 44%. Even before this poll dropped, the betting markets already viewed Cruz as the favorite in Wisconsin. Yet, the Read more

Donald Trump, The Revenant and Herding in Prediction Markets: A Cautionary Tale

In many ways, the recent political history of Donald Trump mirrors Alejandro G Inarritu's 2015 film: The Revenant. In both, a man is left for dead in the wilderness, only to return with a bloody minded determination to wreak his vengeance. For the Republican frontrunner, his political savaging by Barack Obama at the 2011 White Read more