November is just around the corner and campaigns are gearing up for the ad war, with an ever-increasing focus on the digital space. As campaigns start to shift from a fundraising focus to a strategy focused more on persuasion and finally to get-out-the-vote, we

A lot has been written about impeachment of President Trump, and the shift in public opinion. For example, the 538 tracker has about a 4 ppt. advantage for support [https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/impeachment-polls/], a massive shift from late September when Don’t support

Could not help myself, so my future reference I made a quick list of how Nate Silver is a really great data journalist and publisher, but a really bad pundit and not a progressive. My best guess is that he a moderate, possibly right-of-center

A little bit of personal background: Two very different feelings dominated on the morning after the 2016 election: anger/shame/frustration/sadness regarding the State of the Union (Not Strong!), and a sense of validation, namely that large-scale continuous data collection via disparate modes,

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GOP misinformation campaign -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Republicans and president Trump have been engaging in full-blown misinformation campaigns for years now – everything from crowd-sizes at Trump speeches to [https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2018/11/19/president-trumps-crowd-size-estimates-increasingly-unbelievable/] illegal immigrants voting [https

The Big Question and our Larger Vision -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- When we were approached by The Atlantic in early 2018, we developed a bold idea together. Develop a map (both geo-spatial and geographic) of what we as researchers call affective polarization, or political tolerance. The method:

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Identifying the most and least politically tolerant county in the US – PredictWise analytics and reporting by The Atlantic -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Today, The Atlantic published a story identifying the least and most politically tolerant counties in the US and along the way ranking every county

February 24, 2019 at 7:59 PM ET: Here are the final market predictions (not much changed): [https://pw-legacy-blog-images.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Oscar201902232000.png] February 23, 2019 at 8 PM ET: I am going to blog from here on

Segmentations powering digital ad targeting: Targeting advertising on the basis of individual-level segmentations is not a new idea: other organizations have collected custom survey data – time- and cost-intensive, to create static segmentation of persuadables, as a one-size-fits-all solution for digital targeting of the entire

Just this weekend the mainstream media highlighted three ways that its unwritten rules actually encourages extreme and non-normative political behavior. 1) If the mainstream media sees details of a policy, it will tear it apart. But, if it does not see details of a

Note: this post is a work in progress. I may update from time to time as I try to formulate my thoughts. Any budding political theorist want to work on an academic version of this post, drop me an email … There are two ways

This is an update to a piece I wrote in early 2 [https://blog.predictwise.com/2018/02/republicans-hate-the-constitution/]018 [https://blog.predictwise.com/2018/02/republicans-hate-the-constitution/]. Republicans, media, and sadly Democrats all seem to believe that Republicans are into the Constitution. But, they

President Trump is compromised to Russia. Russia knows a lot of secrets about both his business and political dealings which, if revealed by Russia, would/should cost Trump (and his family) politically, financially, and possibly criminally. Here is the briefest, Twitter-friendly overview: Business. This

Antisemites think they have Jewish-Americans in a tight spot. When a Jewish American says something about opposing an ethno-nationalist state in America, they retort: what about Israel! They have an ethno-nationalist government! Do you think they should have open-borders?!? Here is the problem: 1)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- PredictWise Calibrated Polling explained -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Late in the cycle, we introduced a new method we dubbedPredictWise Calibrated Polling [https://blog.predictwise.com/2018/11/predictwise-calibrated-polling/].As a brief reminder, this is Calibrated Polling: As we have maintained through the cycle, estimating who people

I (i.e., David Rothschild) live in constant regret for spending way too much time in 2016 worrying about who was going to win, and way too little about what information that I could produce that would actually be useful for a well functioning

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Three late breaking polls -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- We have launched three late-breaking polls into interesting and critical races, Nevada Senate, Texas Senate and CA-22 – all polls make use of our newly developed method, Calibrated Polling [https://blog.predictwise.com/2018/11/predictwise-calibrated-polling/], making use of

We spent the last few cycles doing academic research on politics, pushing the boundaries of both methods (data collection [https://5harad.com/papers/1p1v.pdf] , analytics [http://researchdmr.com/Methods2016.pdf], and consumption [http://researchdmr.com/ProbabilityTotalError.pdf]) and domain understanding ( mapping public opinion

I continue to enjoy exploring MSN [https://www.msn.com/]‘s polling module, and we have done some very interesting work in 2018 learning how the polling data can enhance understanding of the MSN users. But, MSN polling also offers one simple and exciting

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Horse Race with PredictWise methodology -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- As you have seen elsewhere,PredictWise’s [http://predictwise.com]track record when it comes to horse race predictions is, to say the least, very good [https://blog.predictwise.com/2018/04/congressional-polling-nearly-perfect/]. In general, there is