Calibrated polling: Post-Mortem

  PredictWise Calibrated Polling explained  Late in the cycle, we introduced a new method we dubbed PredictWise Calibrated Polling. As a brief reminder, this is Calibrated Polling: As we have maintained through the cycle, estimating who people will vote for, conditional on them turning out, was easier than estimating the composition of the turnout composition of the Read more

Election Day 2018

I (i.e., David Rothschild) live in constant regret for spending way too much time in 2016 worrying about who was going to win, and way too little about what information that I could produce that would actually be useful for a well functioning democracy. That is why for 2018, I (along with my partner Tobias Read more

Three late polls, and more lofty thoughts

  Three late breaking polls We have launched three late-breaking polls into interesting and critical races, Nevada Senate, Texas Senate and CA-22 – all polls make use of our newly developed method, Calibrated Polling, making use of live-updating early voting data to calibrate our expectations of the turnout space. Let's start with the letter: We Read more

Pre-Election Thoughts on Campaign Data Space

We spent the last few cycles doing academic research on politics, pushing the boundaries of both methods (data collection, analytics, and consumption) and domain understanding (mapping public opinion, effect of advertising, and news). And some of this work has had an impact on how actual practitioners create and use data around politics. But, we missed Read more

MSN Polling: Shifts in Interest

I continue to enjoy exploring MSN's polling module, and we have done some very interesting work in 2018 learning how the polling data can enhance understanding of the MSN users. But, MSN polling also offers one simple and exciting attribute: the ability to do repeated, fast polling, at scale. For about 30 minutes each week, Read more

PredictWise Calibrated Polling

  Horse Race with PredictWise methodology As you have seen elsewhere, PredictWise's track record when it comes to horse race predictions is, to say the least, very good. In general, there is a number of key cornerstones to successful predictions, we believe: Our data collection, based on Random Device Engagement, meaning that we target Ad IDs on Read more

Progressive Pendulum: Rescuing Robeson County

This is part 12 of the PredictWise series on congressional districts that are seen as competitive in the 2018 election according to PredictWise and Cook: The PredictWise Progressive Pendulum, with new entries coming right here on PredictWise every Tuesday. Instead of the ins-and-outs of the horse-race, this series sheds light on the ideological landscape in these districts. Read more

How will they vote? Dissecting Directional Vote among Hispanics

2010-2016: The Republicanization of the Hispanic vote Given President Trump's late-cycle appeal to immigration hardliners, it is surprising that Hispanics are only a second order priority for Democratic campaigns. Latino Decisions, in conducting a tracking poll for the bipartisan National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials (NALEO), concludes that only 6 out of 10 Hispanic eligible Read more

Progressive Pendulum: Kindling Key West

This is part 11 of the PredictWise series on congressional districts that are seen as competitive in the 2018 election according to PredictWise and Cook: The PredictWise Progressive Pendulum, with new entries coming right here on PredictWise every Tuesday. Instead of the ins-and-outs of the horse-race, this series sheds light on the ideological landscape in these districts. Read more