Government Shutdown

 

The table is now not as useful as a chart of the evening. The deal was struck at 10:30 PM and the probability derived from Intrade's prices moved just as the deal was being announced. That being said, it was generally moving in that direction as some information was dispersed. At 10:30 PM HuffingtonPost and others were still giving very neutral headlines, while Intrade was in its steady march downward towards no shutdown.

 

Watch this number as we approach midnight! It is currently at 55% with 6 hours to go …