The rational case for why Obama supported gay marriage when he did (Originally posted on Yahoo!'s "The Signal" Blog)

When Barack Obama announced his support for gay marriage on May 9, most commentators immediately turned to how this would affect his chances in the 2012 campaign. Now that a few days have elapsed, we can say with confidence that the effect was negligible.

The following chart illustrates the most accurate and real-time forecasts, derived from prediction market data, two days before and after the announcement.

Click Here for the Full Text on Yahoo!'s The Signal