Republican convention fails to move markets, but expect a bounce in polls (Originally posted on Yahoo!'s "The Signal" Blog)

Two stories will play out today as the floors are swept and the balloons popped at the Tampa Bay Times Forum: That Republican nominee Mitt Romney will receive a bump in the polls after accepting the nomination, and to pay no attention to this bump. These stories evidently do not cancel one another out.

The prediction markets we follow are generally uninterested in temporary inflations like these. (The same will probably be true for President Obama this time next week.) In fact, the spread in the gambling markets moved slightly in Obama's favor from before to after the Republican Convention. This does not mean the convention was unsuccessful. Sure, there were some strange moments, but most of the events went off without a hitch. It simply means it was not a homerun. Romney is challenging an incumbent president, so anything less than a picture-perfect convention is going to give the market a sense that he's running out of time to make his case for a change of leadership.

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