Hidden video moves Obama 2.5% closer to reelection

The effect of the hidden video of Mitt Rommey addressing fundraisers about the 47% of Americans that do not pay federal income taxes was about 2.5 percenage points. We are not sure if the polls will really be affected in the short-run, but the prediction markets anticipate a long-term cost to Romney. The video will play in advertisments, dominate the debate over the next few days and weeks, and may play a major part in debates. Even if it does not move polls tomorrow, it will, likely, make a difference on Election Day.