There are three main effects of the 2014 election the 2016 election. First, the Republicans are slightly more likely than before the election to capture the presidency, but the Democrats are still favored. Second, Scott Walker is much more likely to get the Republican nomination, while Jeb Bush is slightly more likely. Third, Mitt Romney is much less likely to get the Republican nomination. There is not really any effect on the Democratic nomination.

The Democratic nominee is 58% likely to win the 2016 presidential election; this is down ever so slightly from before 2014 Election Day. Presidential elections have a much larger voting pool, which is more Democratic, than midterm elections. And, I will let other people debate the motivation of the votes on Election Day 2014, but Obama will not be on the ballot in 2016.

Scott Walker shot up as the major solid, right-wing Republican during the 2014 elections. He won reelection convincingly in a Democratic state, Wisconsin. But, the key thing, is that unlike Mitt Romney or other blue state Republicans, he ran as a solid right-wing Republican.

Jeb Bush, not on the ballot, had a good day as the moderate Republican standard-bearer; that means that Mitt Romney lost the day. Another moderate Republican, Chris Christie, should be happy about Republican governors having a good day, but Jeb Bush and Scott Walker offset any of his joy.

Much more about the 2016 election in the coming months and years.