State of election markets: 338 Days

The Republican nomination is still in the semi-finals with the establishment bracket still being led by Marco Rubio (4th in the polls) and the non-establishment bracket still being led by Donald Trump (1st in the polls). Rubio’s strength is somewhat diminished this week as he again fails to seize the mantle of a unified establishment, but he still strongly in the overall lead. Trump continues upward ever slightly the longer he stays competitive in the polls.

The establishment race between Rubio, Jeb Bush, and Chris Christie continues because Rubio and Bush both seem unable to make positive movement. Just as Bush was unable to get people excited about his candidacy, Rubio is struggling to find his niche. But, every candidate below them, most prominently now Christie has already been vetted and flopped. (Christie’s one prominent position is being a hardline interventionist, and that is why people are buzzing about him now, but his social and fiscal positions are basically undefined and New Jersey is a mess.) Time is running out before the voting starts for the establishment to rally around someone; the establishment is either going to have to accept Rubio or raise the possibility of losing the nomination to the non-establishment.

The non-establishment race between Trump and Ted Cruz is getting serious, as they are down to two candidates. For the record Ben Carson is still in second place in the polls, but the markets consider his candidacy over. Cruz is surging and is now a real threat to Trump for those who want a radical outsider with more firmly held beliefs on social (opposes abortion in cases of rape and incest) and fiscal issues (gold standard!). He is actually more conservative than the party on foreign policy issues (not an interventionist), which is interesting as the Republican primary pivots to terrorism.The interest thing is that Trump is now the more palpable non-establishment candidate to the establishment.

The New Hampshire primary is still over two months away. Still plenty of time for the race to thin out further and possibly one of these semi-finals to conclude.

 

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Vertical Lines: Nothing this week …

Sources: Betfair, Hypermind, PredictIt, http://twopointoh.predictwise.com/politics/2016RepNomination

The Democrats are also hosting a nomination process as well. But, they prefer for people to not see and/or discuss it.

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Vertical Lines: Nothing this week …

Sources: Betfair, Hypermind, PredictIt, http://twopointoh.predictwise.com/politics/2016DemNomination

The next debate is the Republican debate on Tuesday, December 15. The Democrats will meet on Saturday, December 19 (because, you know, everyone wants to watch politics on Saturday nights during holiday breaks).