9:34 PM ET: Start of 4th quarter, 16-7 Broncos, Broncos with the ball. Broncos 78% to win over Panthers.
8:40 PM ET: Broncos 52% to win at halftime. They are up 13-7.
8:11 PM ET: Panthers 52% at 2 min warning of 1st half. Down 7-13 with 1:55 and the ball at their own 18.
7:40 PM ET: Markets have Panthers at 60% to win Super Bowl; down 7-10, Broncos w/ the ball, 11:18 left in 2nd quarter. Statistical model on ESPN has them at 45%. Ideosyncratic data is favoring the Panthers.
7:25 PM ET: Broncos up 10-0 at end of 1st quarter and just 63% to win the game. Markets convinced the Panthers will challenge.
5:45 PM ET: I will doing some light blogging at this spot … Carolina Panthers going into Super Bowl 67% to win. Chart should update every 3-5 minutes during the game!