Montana still likely to go Republican

This is from a poll we ran today from 12 PM MT to 7 PM MT. Rushing out the results before the polls close at 8 PM MT:

1) GOP Gianforte went from +12 in our May 19 poll to +5.5 on May 25. Still likely to win, but now much tighter. Of course, Gianforte benefits from 70 percent or so of voters, voting early by mail.

Figure1

2) If the election were held tomorrow, with no early voting, the election would be a toss-up. No one is defecting from Republican Gianforte to Democrat Quist, but they are going evenly to Libertarian Wicks or not voting.

3) 96 percent of people have heard of Gianforte's incident, and we believe them. 78 percent were able to correctly identify that Gianforte has been charged with a misdemeanor assault, rather than felony or no charge.

Figure2

4) 22 percent think he was justified in assaulting the reporter, 44 percent think we was not justified, and 31 percent are not sure!

Polls close in 22 minutes!