Arizona 8 Close, but Democrat Trailing

PredictWise/Pollfish Poll for AZ8 (Pollfish and PredictWise) has Republican Debbie Lesko up 6 percentage points over Democrat Hiral Tipirneni in the Arizona's 8th District Special Election. We will put the normal caveats that this poll is not as powered as we normally do, but it is the third special Congressional election we have run, and we have been within 1 point on the other two (Montana and Pennsylvania's 18th).

Regardless of the final outcome, once again a Democratic candidate is surging in a Republican district, and once again there is massive benefit for the Democratic candidate in healthcare policy. National Democrats are coalescing around allowing all Americans the option to buy-into Medicare, and that polls at 69 percent, with just 12 percent opposition, in AZ-08. The main Republican alternative is to "allow healthcare insurance to be sold that does NOT cover pre-existing conditions, maternity care, and mental health" (i.e., eliminate ObamaCare's Essential Benefits). This polls at just 25 percent. While most independents do not have a strong opinion on which party has a better healthcare plan, among those independents who pick a party, Democrats out-poll Republicans by 4:1 (i.e., 80 percent of those independents who pick a party, pick the Democrats plan).

Despite strong support for raising taxes on corporations and high income households, the Democratic message is not clear to the voters. 63 percent want to raise taxes on corporations and 49 percent on households with income over $250,000. The Republican plan does just the opposite. Yet, there is no clear Democratic alternative, so it is not surprising that independents are split on which party has a better tax plan.

There is massive sympathy for undocumented immigrants currently in the US, but there is also strong support for decreasing legal immigration. 72 percent want some path to legalization for Dreamers, but 49 percent think the flow of legal immigration should be decreased (just 7 percent want an increased flow of legal immigrants). This is what President Trump is offering: amnesty for Dreamers in exchange for massive cut in legal immigration. So, while independents are somewhat split on the parties' immigration policies, the Republicans are very enthusiastic about their own positions.

Voters in the Arizona 8th are somewhat supportive of limiting gun magazine size, but also support letting concealed carry permits work anywhere in the US. So, they support some stringent gun safety, but also guns rights expansion. So, not much to be gained in the gun fight in Arizona.

Once again healthcare is a massive winning issue for the Democrats, but unlike Pennsylvania's 18th District, it does not look like it will be enough to get the long-shot Democrat into Congress.