PredictWise Daily 20180626: Move over #DredScott here comes #TrumpHawaii

Welcome to the PredictWise Daily 20180626. My goal is to write Sundays through Thursdays, publish around 9 PM ET. It will be a short recap of what was most interesting that day. I will limit it to three bullet points. Today:

1) Supreme Court Upholds President Trump's Muslim Travel Ban: In a 5-4 decision the Supreme Court basically said we get that the Muslim Travel Ban was about religion from everything President Trump said about it, but we are going to pretend it is about about security, because we want Trump to have this power to do this thing. This type of reasoning would have been perfect for upholding Jim Crow voting laws. They did not mention Blacks and did not cover all Blacks, but were clearly aimed at excluding as many Blacks from voting as legally possible. Also, the Supreme Court also made it legal for medical professionals (or people pretending to be medical professionals) to lie to women about their health and treatment options (when it comes to their reproductive organs).

2) US is losing the trade war, which makes sense, because everyone loses in trade wars: Not only did Harley-Davidson announce they were moving production out of the US to avoid tariffs, but President Trump had a Twitter melt-down over how quickly and visibly his trade war was costing jobs (and increasing costs for consumer). But, to quote John Marshall's commentary from President Trump talking today: "Trump appears to suggest that revenue from his tariffs may be able to replace the federal income tax, referencing McKinley when federal spending was 2.2% of GDP as opposed to 23% or 24%." And, of course, the entire point of the tariff to reduce imports, so revenue will not go up, but down over time.

3) Democratic Healthcare Plan (let anyone buy Medicare, if they want) is a sharp contrast with the Republican Healthcare Plan (make healthcare unaffordable for people with preexisting conditions and sabotage market for everyone else). Nothing new about this today, but it remains the top public policy issue of the upcoming 2018 election. Earlier PredictWise article: Messaging Healthcare. I am going to add this every day, between now and the election, even when there is no new news on this, because it should be repeated every day.

Market Watch 20180626: Democrats 60 percent to take the House and Republicans 72 percent to hold the Senate outright and 15 percent to hold the Senate with 50/50 tie.