PredictWise Daily 20180628: Another Sad Day

Welcome to the PredictWise Daily 20180628. My goal is to write Sundays through Thursdays, publish around 9 PM ET. It will be a short recap of what was most interesting that day. I will limit it to three bullet points. Today:

1) Another mass shooting: 96 people die each day from gun violence in the US, but mass shooting focus our attention on the problem. Regardless of the how the shooter got the gun we should register all guns, license all users, and cap magazine size. All three policies are effective and popular. And, regardless of the shooters' motives in shooting up a newspaper, it is despicable that Republicans have been declaring the media as an enemy of the state.

2) President Trump continues to do everything Russia has dreamed about for 73 years: In a few weeks President Trump will shun our NATO allies, dress them down, and then cozy up to Russia's Putin. This is batshit crazy. (1) Economy: Russia is a tiny petrol economy, while EU is powerful and diverse market (2) Security: we share 5,000+ miles of border with Canada, while EU is a bulwark for US. (3) Security: Russia is literally cyber-attacking US, right now. (4) Governance: EU & Canada (generally) share US goals of transparent democracy, while Russia is corrupt autocracy. Beyond domestic political implications: ditching EU & Canada for Russia is just really stupid for US. Team Trump clearly colluded with Russia's work on the 2016 election for Trump and it has been paying off for Russia.

3) Democratic Healthcare Plan (let anyone buy Medicare, if they want) is a sharp contrast with the Republican Healthcare Plan (make healthcare unaffordable for people with preexisting conditions and sabotage the market for everyone else). Nothing new about this today, but it remains the top public policy issue of the upcoming 2018 election. Earlier PredictWise article: Messaging Healthcare. I am going to add this every day, between now and the election, even when there is no knew news on this, because it should be repeated every day.

Market Watch 20180628: Democrats 58 percent to take the House and Republicans 73 percent to hold the Senate outright and 15 percent to hold the Senate with 50/50 tie.