PredictWise Daily 20180702: There is no deal with North Korea

Welcome to the PredictWise Daily 20180702:

1) There is no deal with North Korea, just concessions for nothing: President Trump met with leader of North Korea giving him photo-ops he wanted and agreed to suspect joint-exercises with South Korea. Then Trump claimed North Korea was denuclearizing, but North Korea is building more facilities proving Trump got nothing for all of our concessions. Reminder President Trump also violated the Iran agreement (just made things worse), pulled out of Paris (rest of world leading without US), did not sign TPP (China stoked, we got nothing), threatening NAFTA (companies leaving US with new trade war!), NATO, and WTO.

2) New and scary that Supreme Court is fully aligned with two-party system: I have no illusions about political strife of the US going all of the way back to the founding or specifically about the factions that dominated the Supreme Court through the years. It is not that the Supreme Court remained above the fold, but it is only recently tied to two-party partisan alignment. The Republicans are going to nominate someone who is vetted, committed partisan, and any suggestion of jurisprudence is absurd.

3) ICE's history is short, cruel, and increasingly about diverting resources from catching violent criminals to deporting productive members of society: To quote Matthew Yglesias: "Obama made ICE focus on violent criminals. Republicans freaked out, Trump won with the ICE union’s support and they enthusiastically went back to deporting upstanding mm. Left activists started calling to “abolish ICE” and the White House pushes back citing … violent criminals."

*) Democratic Healthcare Plan (let anyone buy Medicare, if they want) is a sharp contrast with the Republican Healthcare Plan (make healthcare unaffordable for people with preexisting conditions and sabotage the market for everyone else). Nothing new about this today, but it remains the top public policy issue of the upcoming 2018 election. Earlier PredictWise article: Messaging Healthcare. I am going to add this every day, between now and the election, even when there is no knew news on this, because it should be repeated every day.

Market Watch 20180702: Democrats 58 percent to take the House and Republicans 74 percent to hold the Senate outright and 14 percent to hold the Senate with 50/50 tie.