PredictWise Daily 20180703: Trump is the Swamp

Welcome to the PredictWise Daily 20180703:

1) Republican plan to undermine the Census may get stopped: New York Attorney General Underwood, "In a major win for our office, a judge just found “strong” evidence the Trump admin acted in bad faith in adding a citizenship question to the Census—and ordered the federal govt to produce discovery in our lawsuit." Good thing: Republicans may want to avoid any discovery or they will have nothing real to show: because every major expert in the field knows that adding this questions to the Census will create bias results (make people scared to answer) with no benefit (because ACS allows us to adequately input the answers).

2) Somehow EPA head Pruitt has new scandal, challenging for most corruption cabinet secretary ever in both quality and quantity of scandals: it is not just Pruitt (cut-rate apartment for lobbyist who he did favors for, got wife several job prospects, flies first class for safety, has massive entourage, apparently rips off young subordinates, etc), obviously there is President Trump ($500 million loan from China), Ivanka Trump (trademarks from China), and Jared Kushner (did we almost start a war over his financial ties to Qatar?), but Price (travel expenses) has already been forced out, and Ross (shorting stocks on questionable information) and Zinke (unethical land-deal with Halliburton) both have firable offenses. Further, we know all of this despite NO meaningful Congressional oversight of the administration.

Democratic Healthcare Plan (let anyone buy Medicare, if they want) is a sharp contrast with the Republican Healthcare Plan (make healthcare unaffordable for people with preexisting conditions and sabotage the market for everyone else). Nothing new about this today, but it remains the top public policy issue of the upcoming 2018 election. Earlier PredictWise article: Messaging Healthcare. I am going to add this every day, between now and the election, even when there is no knew news on this, because it should be repeated every day.

Market Watch 20180702: Democrats 58 percent to take the House and Republicans 71 percent to hold the Senate outright and 16 percent to hold the Senate with 50/50 tie.