Republicans Hate the Constitution

This is an update to a piece I wrote in early 2018. Republicans, media, and sadly Democrats all seem to believe that Republicans are into the Constitution. But, they are not: Republicans hate the Constitution. Here is the full text of the Constitution. You should read it, it is not that long. In this post Read more

Trump and Russia

President Trump is compromised to Russia. He is compromised because Russia knows a lot of secrets about both his business and political dealings which, if revealed by Russia, would could cost Trump (and his family) politically, financially, and possibly criminally. Here is the briefest, Twitter-friendly overview: Business. This is just what we know: what is Read more

Jewish Americans are American

Antisemites think they have Jewish-Americans in a tight spot. When a Jewish American says something about opposing an ethno-nationalist state in America, they retort: what about Israel! They have an ethno-nationalist government! Do you think they should have open-borders?!? Here is the problem: 1) As Americans, Jewish-Americans are under no obligation to have an opinion Read more

Calibrated polling: Post-Mortem

  PredictWise Calibrated Polling explained  Late in the cycle, we introduced a new method we dubbed PredictWise Calibrated Polling. As a brief reminder, this is Calibrated Polling: As we have maintained through the cycle, estimating who people will vote for, conditional on them turning out, was easier than estimating the composition of the turnout composition of the Read more

Election Day 2018

I (i.e., David Rothschild) live in constant regret for spending way too much time in 2016 worrying about who was going to win, and way too little about what information that I could produce that would actually be useful for a well functioning democracy. That is why for 2018, I (along with my partner Tobias Read more

Three late polls, and more lofty thoughts

  Three late breaking polls We have launched three late-breaking polls into interesting and critical races, Nevada Senate, Texas Senate and CA-22 – all polls make use of our newly developed method, Calibrated Polling, making use of live-updating early voting data to calibrate our expectations of the turnout space. Let's start with the letter: We Read more

Pre-Election Thoughts on Campaign Data Space

We spent the last few cycles doing academic research on politics, pushing the boundaries of both methods (data collection, analytics, and consumption) and domain understanding (mapping public opinion, effect of advertising, and news). And some of this work has had an impact on how actual practitioners create and use data around politics. But, we missed Read more

MSN Polling: Shifts in Interest

I continue to enjoy exploring MSN's polling module, and we have done some very interesting work in 2018 learning how the polling data can enhance understanding of the MSN users. But, MSN polling also offers one simple and exciting attribute: the ability to do repeated, fast polling, at scale. For about 30 minutes each week, Read more

PredictWise Calibrated Polling

  Horse Race with PredictWise methodology As you have seen elsewhere, PredictWise's track record when it comes to horse race predictions is, to say the least, very good. In general, there is a number of key cornerstones to successful predictions, we believe: Our data collection, based on Random Device Engagement, meaning that we target Ad IDs on Read more