Our full model, which does factor in polls and markets in addtion to fundamental data, still has Obama winning the election with 303 votes.
We searched for an explanation for difference between our full model and our pure fundamental model, by looking for data points that are uniquely different this year than in the historical elections. There is one glaringly obvious factor: the favorability difference between Obama and Romney.
Favorability is shockingly bad for Romney. Pollsters routinely ask questions like, “Do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of …” for both Obama and Romney. Currently, the Pollster average has Obama with 48 percent favorability and 45 percent unfavorability, while Romney is lingering with 41 percent favorability and 47 percent unfavorability. Romney’s consistent negative favorability to unfavorability split is unprecedented in American politics.