David Rothschild - Predictwise Blog

2020 Election

Fundamental Model Predicts Electoral College Tie

Today, February 27, 2020, we release our fundamental Electoral College model for 2020. I want to emphasize that I ran the data without knowing what would happen: it comes out as a 269 to 269 tie.

Data Journalist Publisher is Unfortunate Pundit

Could not help myself, so my future reference I made a quick list of how Nate Silver is a really great data journalist and publisher, but a really bad pundit and not a progressive. My best guess is that he a moderate, possibly right-of-center

The Atlantic's The Geography of Partisan Prejudice: Method Addendum

Identifying the most and least politically tolerant county in the US – PredictWise analytics and reporting by The Atlantic Today, The Atlantic published a story identifying the least and most politically tolerant counties in the US and along the way ranking every county on

Oscars 2019

February 24, 2019 at 7:59 PM ET: Here are the final market predictions (not much changed): February 23, 2019 at 8 PM ET: I am going to blog from here on Oscar night. Here are the latest predictions. This will update live during

Mainstream Media's Bad Incentives

Just this weekend the mainstream media highlighted three ways that its unwritten rules actually encourages extreme and non-normative political behavior. 1) If the mainstream media sees details of a policy, it will tear it apart. But, if it does not see details of a

False Equivalency, False Legitimacy, Asymmetric Accountability

Note: this post is a work in progress. I may update from time to time as I try to formulate my thoughts. Any budding political theorist want to work on an academic version of this post, drop me an email … There are two

Republicans Hate the Constitution

This is an update to a piece I wrote in early 2018. Republicans, media, and sadly Democrats all seem to believe that Republicans are into the Constitution. But, they are not: Republicans hate the Constitution. Here is the full text of the Constitution. You

Jewish Americans are American

Antisemites think they have Jewish-Americans in a tight spot. When a Jewish American says something about opposing an ethno-nationalist state in America, they retort: what about Israel! They have an ethno-nationalist government! Do you think they should have open-borders?!? Here is the problem: 1)