A lot has been written about impeachment of President Trump, and the shift in public opinion. For example, the 538 tracker has about a 4 ppt. advantage for support [https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/impeachment-polls/], a massive shift from late September when Don’t support

A little bit of personal background: Two very different feelings dominated on the morning after the 2016 election: anger/shame/frustration/sadness regarding the State of the Union (Not Strong!), and a sense of validation, namely that large-scale continuous data collection via disparate modes,

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GOP misinformation campaign -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Republicans and president Trump have been engaging in full-blown misinformation campaigns for years now – everything from crowd-sizes at Trump speeches to [https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2018/11/19/president-trumps-crowd-size-estimates-increasingly-unbelievable/] illegal immigrants voting [https

Segmentations powering digital ad targeting: Targeting advertising on the basis of individual-level segmentations is not a new idea: other organizations have collected custom survey data – time- and cost-intensive, to create static segmentation of persuadables, as a one-size-fits-all solution for digital targeting of the entire

President Trump is compromised to Russia. Russia knows a lot of secrets about both his business and political dealings which, if revealed by Russia, would/should cost Trump (and his family) politically, financially, and possibly criminally. Here is the briefest, Twitter-friendly overview: Business. This

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- PredictWise Calibrated Polling explained -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Late in the cycle, we introduced a new method we dubbedPredictWise Calibrated Polling [https://blog.predictwise.com/2018/11/predictwise-calibrated-polling/].As a brief reminder, this is Calibrated Polling: As we have maintained through the cycle, estimating who people

I (i.e., David Rothschild) live in constant regret for spending way too much time in 2016 worrying about who was going to win, and way too little about what information that I could produce that would actually be useful for a well functioning

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Three late breaking polls -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- We have launched three late-breaking polls into interesting and critical races, Nevada Senate, Texas Senate and CA-22 – all polls make use of our newly developed method, Calibrated Polling [https://blog.predictwise.com/2018/11/predictwise-calibrated-polling/], making use of

We spent the last few cycles doing academic research on politics, pushing the boundaries of both methods (data collection [https://5harad.com/papers/1p1v.pdf] , analytics [http://researchdmr.com/Methods2016.pdf], and consumption [http://researchdmr.com/ProbabilityTotalError.pdf]) and domain understanding ( mapping public opinion

I continue to enjoy exploring MSN [https://www.msn.com/]‘s polling module, and we have done some very interesting work in 2018 learning how the polling data can enhance understanding of the MSN users. But, MSN polling also offers one simple and exciting

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Horse Race with PredictWise methodology -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- As you have seen elsewhere,PredictWise’s [http://predictwise.com]track record when it comes to horse race predictions is, to say the least, very good [https://blog.predictwise.com/2018/04/congressional-polling-nearly-perfect/]. In general, there is

This is part 12 of the PredictWise series on congressional districts that are seen ascompetitive in the 2018 election according to PredictWise and Cook: The PredictWise Progressive Pendulum, with new entries coming right here on PredictWise every Tuesday. Instead of the ins-and-outs of the

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2010-2016: The Republicanization of the Hispanic vote -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Given President Trump’s late-cycle appeal to immigration hardliners, it is surprising that Hispanics are only a second order priority for Democratic campaigns. Latino Decisions, in conducting a tracking poll for the bipartisan National Association

This is part 11 of the PredictWise series on congressional districts that are seen ascompetitive in the 2018 election according to PredictWise and Cook: The PredictWise Progressive Pendulum, with new entries coming right here on PredictWise every Tuesday. Instead of the ins-and-outs of the

We recently did some polling for NowThis [https://nowthisnews.com/] on Judge Kavanaugh. The poll was conducted on Friday, September 21, so it misses some recent allegations, but is still extremely relevant. Here is the full data [https://pw-legacy-blog-images.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/wp-content/