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predictwise

349 posts

Misinformation has a Republican bias. The question is: why?

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GOP misinformation campaign -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Republicans and president Trump have been engaging in full-blown misinformation campaigns for years now – everything from crowd-sizes at Trump speeches to [https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2018/11/19/president-trumps-crowd-size-estimates-increasingly-unbelievable/] illegal immigrants voting [https

Calibrated polling: Post-Mortem

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- PredictWise Calibrated Polling explained -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Late in the cycle, we introduced a new method we dubbedPredictWise Calibrated Polling [https://blog.predictwise.com/2018/11/predictwise-calibrated-polling/].As a brief reminder, this is Calibrated Polling: As we have maintained through the cycle, estimating who people

Three late polls, and more lofty thoughts

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Three late breaking polls -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- We have launched three late-breaking polls into interesting and critical races, Nevada Senate, Texas Senate and CA-22 – all polls make use of our newly developed method, Calibrated Polling [https://blog.predictwise.com/2018/11/predictwise-calibrated-polling/], making use of

PredictWise Calibrated Polling

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Horse Race with PredictWise methodology -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- As you have seen elsewhere,PredictWise’s [http://predictwise.com]track record when it comes to horse race predictions is, to say the least, very good [https://blog.predictwise.com/2018/04/congressional-polling-nearly-perfect/]. In general, there is

How will they vote? Dissecting Directional Vote among Hispanics

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2010-2016: The Republicanization of the Hispanic vote -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Given President Trump’s late-cycle appeal to immigration hardliners, it is surprising that Hispanics are only a second order priority for Democratic campaigns. Latino Decisions, in conducting a tracking poll for the bipartisan National Association

How will they vote? Dissecting directional vote among Millennials, minorities

How will they vote? Dissecting directional vote among Millennials, minorities

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Voting Among Subgroups in 2014 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- We have recently discussed the importance of turnout [https://blog.predictwise.com/2018/09/democratic-house-control-and-misplaced-enthusiasm/], and we firmly believe that turnout will determine

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