We have said it over and over again – turnout matters when it comes to control of the House of Representatives! Of course, turnout is only part of the game. There are two aspects to elections: who will turnout to vote (turnout) and, conditional on turnout, who will voters vote for (preference)? So, why so focus Read more
Voting Among Subgroups in 2014 We have recently discussed the importance of turnout, and we firmly believe that turnout will determine the outcome of this election. But, this is not to say that direction of vote conditional on turnout is not important. A lot of media attention is spent on White men without a college Read more
This is part 10 of the PredictWise series on congressional districts that are seen as competitive in the 2018 election according to PredictWise and Cook: The PredictWise Progressive Pendulum, with new entries coming right here on PredictWise every Tuesday. Instead of the ins-and-outs of the horse-race, this series sheds light on the ideological landscape in these districts. Read more
We have seen a lot of midterm polls, and to be frank, they look darn good for Democrats: YouGov at Dem +8, PEW at +10, there is even this Quinnipiac poll, at Dem +14. OK, those are all generic ballot polls, and asking if likely voters will vote for "the Democratic or Republican candidate" has only Read more
We recently did some polling for NowThis on Judge Kavanaugh. The poll was conducted on Friday, September 21, so it misses some recent allegations, but is still extremely relevant. Here is the full data. Let us start with the toplines. Young people state they are less likely to vote than older people: they are actually Read more
This is part 9 of the PredictWise series on congressional districts that are seen as competitive in the 2018 election according to PredictWise and Cook: The PredictWise Progressive Pendulum, with new entries coming right here on PredictWise every Tuesday. Instead of the ins-and-outs of the horse-race, this series sheds light on the ideological landscape in these districts. Read more
This is part 8 of the PredictWise series on congressional districts that are seen as competitive in the 2018 election according to PredictWise and Cook: The PredictWise Progressive Pendulum, with new entries coming right here on PredictWise every Tuesday. Instead of the ins-and-outs of the horse-race, this series sheds light on the ideological landscape in these districts. Read more
President Trump is corrupt. Trump Organization is a basically a money laundering scheme, and Trump's lawyer/fixer (Michael Cohen) and Campaign Chair (Paul Manafort) are both guilty felons for various tax and financial crimes. So lets talk about why a corrupt president is so bad: (1) Corrupt person is easily susceptible to Blackmail (2) Corruption begets More Read more
This is part 7 of the PredictWise series on congressional districts that are seen as competitive in the 2018 election according to PredictWise and Cook: The PredictWise Progressive Pendulum, with new entries coming right here on PredictWise every Tuesday. Instead of the ins-and-outs of the horse-race, this series sheds light on the ideological landscape in these districts. Read more
Alex Jones is a despicable person who does despicable things including starting crazy conspiracy theories that undermine our democracy, targeting groups of people with hate speech, and singling out innocent and, frequently, grieving people with targeted harassment. After Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey defended Alex Jones (before Twitter decided today to partially suspend him for a week), Read more