Those of you who follow PredictWise regularly will know that PredictWise Audiences achieved much better return metrics in Katie Porter's CA-45 district when put to the test against a rival Audience provided by a consulting group that shall remain unnamed. In short, our Audiences generated 2-4x lift in crucial return metrics such as video through Read more
A lot has been written about impeachment of President Trump, and the shift in public opinion. For example, the 538 tracker has about a 4 ppt. advantage for support, a massive shift from late September when Don't support was up by almost 10 percentage points. And, our polling is no outlier in this array of Read more
Could not help myself, so my future reference I made a quick list of how Nate Silver is a really great data journalist and publisher, but a really bad pundit and not a progressive. My best guess is that he a moderate, possibly right-of-center on policy, who is who just has a really bad understanding Read more
A little bit of personal background: Two very different feelings dominated on the morning after the 2016 election: anger/shame/frustration/sadness regarding the State of the Union (Not Strong!), and a sense of validation, namely that large-scale continuous data collection via disparate modes, paired with the right analytics, can yield actionable insights able to help us dissect Read more
GOP misinformation campaign Republicans and president Trump have been engaging in full-blown misinformation campaigns for years now – everything from crowd-sizes at Trump speeches to illegal immigrants voting to promises of universal coverage and rhetoric around a stronger healthcare amidst dropping numbers of insured. No question, building a policy argument substantially based on blatant lies is Read more
The Big Question and our Larger Vision When we were approached by The Atlantic in early 2018, we developed a bold idea together. Develop a map (both geo-spatial and geographic) of what we as researchers call affective polarization, or political tolerance. The method: collect a (fairly) large survey of about 2,000 respondents, isolate demographic Read more
Identifying the most and least politically tolerant county in the US – PredictWise analytics and reporting by The Atlantic Today, The Atlantic published a story identifying the least and most politically tolerant counties in the US and along the way ranking every county on a political tolerance scale, using analytics by PredictWise. The story is Read more
February 24, 2019 at 7:59 PM ET: Here are the final market predictions (not much changed): February 23, 2019 at 8 PM ET: I am going to blog from here on Oscar night. Here are the latest predictions. This will update live during the presentation! Normally markets get 19-20 binary "correct". But, I should warn Read more
Segmentations powering digital ad targeting: Targeting advertising on the basis of individual-level segmentations is not a new idea: other organizations have collected custom survey data – time- and cost-intensive, to create static segmentation of persuadables, as a one-size-fits-all solution for digital targeting of the entire campaign. PredictWise offers a radically different approach. We have created Read more
Just this weekend the mainstream media highlighted three ways that its unwritten rules actually encourages extreme and non-normative political behavior. 1) If the mainstream media sees details of a policy, it will tear it apart. But, if it does not see details of a policy, it will take its supporter's word for what it does, Read more