I continue to enjoy exploring MSN's polling module, and we have done some very interesting work in 2018 learning how the polling data can enhance understanding of the MSN users. But, MSN polling also offers one simple and exciting attribute: the ability to do repeated, fast polling, at scale. For about 30 minutes each week, Read more
Horse Race with PredictWise methodology As you have seen elsewhere, PredictWise's track record when it comes to horse race predictions is, to say the least, very good. In general, there is a number of key cornerstones to successful predictions, we believe: Our data collection, based on Random Device Engagement, meaning that we target Ad IDs on Read more
This is part 12 of the PredictWise series on congressional districts that are seen as competitive in the 2018 election according to PredictWise and Cook: The PredictWise Progressive Pendulum, with new entries coming right here on PredictWise every Tuesday. Instead of the ins-and-outs of the horse-race, this series sheds light on the ideological landscape in these districts. Read more
2010-2016: The Republicanization of the Hispanic vote Given President Trump's late-cycle appeal to immigration hardliners, it is surprising that Hispanics are only a second order priority for Democratic campaigns. Latino Decisions, in conducting a tracking poll for the bipartisan National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials (NALEO), concludes that only 6 out of 10 Hispanic eligible Read more
This is part 11 of the PredictWise series on congressional districts that are seen as competitive in the 2018 election according to PredictWise and Cook: The PredictWise Progressive Pendulum, with new entries coming right here on PredictWise every Tuesday. Instead of the ins-and-outs of the horse-race, this series sheds light on the ideological landscape in these districts. Read more
We have said it over and over again – turnout matters when it comes to control of the House of Representatives! Of course, turnout is only part of the game. There are two aspects to elections: who will turnout to vote (turnout) and, conditional on turnout, who will voters vote for (preference)? So, why so focus Read more
Voting Among Subgroups in 2014 We have recently discussed the importance of turnout, and we firmly believe that turnout will determine the outcome of this election. But, this is not to say that direction of vote conditional on turnout is not important. A lot of media attention is spent on White men without a college Read more
This is part 10 of the PredictWise series on congressional districts that are seen as competitive in the 2018 election according to PredictWise and Cook: The PredictWise Progressive Pendulum, with new entries coming right here on PredictWise every Tuesday. Instead of the ins-and-outs of the horse-race, this series sheds light on the ideological landscape in these districts. Read more
We have seen a lot of midterm polls, and to be frank, they look darn good for Democrats: YouGov at Dem +8, PEW at +10, there is even this Quinnipiac poll, at Dem +14. OK, those are all generic ballot polls, and asking if likely voters will vote for "the Democratic or Republican candidate" has only Read more
We recently did some polling for NowThis on Judge Kavanaugh. The poll was conducted on Friday, September 21, so it misses some recent allegations, but is still extremely relevant. Here is the full data. Let us start with the toplines. Young people state they are less likely to vote than older people: they are actually Read more