predictwise

Welcome to the PredictWise Daily 20180723: 1) President Trump lied a lot today, about a lot of things. Important to remind everyone to not repeat his lies. If you need to report on his statements, try: President Trump lied a lot today, about a

For decades Democratic politicians have advanced economic policy positions (on: taxes, social safety net like healthcare, shelter, food, and money) several steps to right of Democratic voters. Actually, on many issues they were to the right of Republican voters. Below is handy, oversimplified graphic

President Trump published this list of accomplishments on his 500th day in office early last month, let’s revisit it through a more critical lens: 1) American economy is still humming along, despite the best efforts of President Trump to undermine it with

Welcome to the PredictWise Daily 20180718: 1) Serious people need to accept end-game of Trump Doctrine: he wants to shift United States from security agreement with Canada and Europe to one with Russia. There needs to be public debate on how incredibly stupid this

Serious people in media and politics need to accept what Republican President Trump is clearly demonstrating with his actions and implicitly stating with his words: he wants to shift the United States from a security agreement with Canada and Europe to one with Russia.

This is part 3 of the PredictWise series on congressional districts that are seen as competitive in the 2018 election according to PredictWise and Cook: The PredictWise Progressive Pendulum, with new entries coming right here on PredictWise every Tuesday. Instead of the ins-and-outs of

Welcome to the PredictWise Daily 20180716: 1) President Trump/Republicans want Russia to defeat US in cyber-war, because investigation and defensive actions would (1) embarrass Republicans who were helped by Russia (2) cut-off further help from Russia. Think about that for a second: President

Welcome to the PredictWise Daily 20180712: 1) House Republicans Hate Democracy (and America): trashing a FBI agent for having personal politics, while ignoring the fact the FBI did not leak information on Trump and trashed Clinton, handing Trump the election, is bad. Trying to

Welcome to the PredictWise Daily 20180711: 1) President Trump is good at blowing good things up and terrible at building anything. Beautifully written Twitter thread by Claire Berlinski, which I will sum up as America built current world structures to provide US: dominance, security,

Welcome to the PredictWise Daily 20180710: 1) President Trump literally does not understand how NATO works. All nations pay dues, but they are relatively small and every nation is good. Otherwise, the goal is 2% defense budgets by 2024. So, no one owes US

1) Quick recap of the Quarters: markets had the winner in 3 of 4 games (now 9 of 12 overall) with Brazil as the most likely to be upset, losing to Belgium. 2) Semifinals: France 54% and England 59% are both light favorites over

Welcome to the PredictWise Daily 20180709: 1) Old enough to remember when Republican railed against activist judges, even as Republican Supreme Court ended voting rights, worker organizing, etc. Assume that Republican concern over activist judges will fade even further with a solid 5-4 majority,

Welcome to the PredictWise Daily 20180708: 1) Still NO Congressional hearings on (1) How Trump admin decided to start ripping children from parents and put them in cages (2) Why they were not prepared for reunification (3) What they are doing about it. No

It is impressive how Republicans, media, and Democrats hold Democrats to such high standard of civility, bipartisanship, process, and ethical standards. While, at the same time: Democrats, media, and Republicans just assume Republicans do not give a shit. 1) Civility – Fuck it: Democratic

Every day people (i.e., trolls) tweet at me about how President Trump did not collude with and/or is not compromised to Russia (and/or another foreign power). Reminding everyone of the overwhelming amount of evidence of the relationship between Team Trump and

Welcome to the PredictWise Daily 20180705: 1) Trump administration is historic. Trump corruption is even worse. But, Democrats are not going to win on that: Scott Pruitt stepped down today from EPA after breaking records for breadth of corruption (if not depth) for a

There seems to be a lot of confusion among journalists why President Trump’s base, Republicans in general, remain loyal to him despite the cruelty, incompetence, and corruption of his administration. Obviously, the relatively consistent economy and lack of major wars matter: he

1) Quick recap of Round of Sixteen: markets had winner in 6 of 8 games, with Russia in a big upset over Spain and Sweden a narrow underdog beating Switzerland. 2) Quarterfinals (probabilities will update in real-time here): England is 68% over Sweden, France

Welcome to the PredictWise Daily 20180704: “When in the Course of human events it becomes necessary for one people to dissolve the political bands which have connected them with another and to assume among the powers of the earth, the separate and equal

I will block two types of tweeters, people who send: (1) death threats and (2) Irrelevant, ad hominem, antisemitic attacks. I still believe that Twitter can be used to talk with people with different view. As people as ask me questions about things I

Welcome to the PredictWise Daily 20180703: 1) Republican plan to undermine the Census may get stopped: New York Attorney General Underwood, “In a major win for our office, a judge just found “strong” evidence the Trump admin acted in bad faith in adding

This is part 2 of the PredictWise series on congressional districts that are seen as competitive in the 2018 election according to PredictWise and Cook: The PredictWise Progressive Pendulum, with new entries coming right here on PredictWise every Tuesday. Instead of the ins-and-outs of

Welcome to the PredictWise Daily 20180702: 1) There is no deal with North Korea, just concessions for nothing: President Trump met with leader of North Korea giving him photo-ops he wanted and agreed to suspect joint-exercises with South Korea. Then Trump claimed North Korea