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TX-27 Special Elections: TapResearch/PredictWise predict winner correctly, and two-party vote share among leading candidates very well.   TapResearch and PredictWise ran a poll in TX-27 before the special election to replace Blake Farenthold (yes, this guy below who resigned in disgrace over an

The World Cup market-data page now includes the market-prices for getting to each round. These will update in real-time as games progress, but a few things: 1) Round of Sixteen: Uruguay 50% over Portugal 50%, France 59% over Argentina 41%, Brazil 79% over Mexico

Welcome to the PredictWise Daily 20180628. My goal is to write Sundays through Thursdays, publish around 9 PM ET. It will be a short recap of what was most interesting that day. I will limit it to three bullet points. Today: 1) Another mass

The 27th Congressional District has not been at the forefront of national news, after RuberDucky-pajama-wearing Blake Farenthold resigned, that is. Only few know that this minority-majority district holds special elections on Saturday, June 30th. TapResearch has teamed up with PredictWise to shed light on

I am a political junkie and I have never read a political party platform. So, I assume almost no one does. No one asked me, but if I ran the Democratic Party I would proposed a very short platform that every single American could

President Trump wants the US to abandon their long-standing alliance, both trade and security, with Canada and the European Union (including the United Kingdom), and form a tighter relationship with Russia. I made a simple graphics to explain why this is bat-shit crazy.  

Welcome to the PredictWise Daily 20180627. My goal is to write Sundays through Thursdays, publish around 9 PM ET. It will be a short recap of what was most interesting that day. I will limit it to three bullet points. Today: 1) Supreme Court

Welcome to the PredictWise Daily 20180626. My goal is to write Sundays through Thursdays, publish around 9 PM ET. It will be a short recap of what was most interesting that day. I will limit it to three bullet points. Today: 1) Supreme Court

  This is part 1 of the PredictWise series on congressional districts that are seen as competitive in the 2018 election according to PredictWise and Cook: The PredictWise Progressive Pendulum, with new entries coming right here on PredictWise every Tuesday. Instead of the ins-and-outs

Welcome to the PredictWise Daily 20180625. My goal is to write Sundays through Thursdays, publish around 9 PM ET. It will be a short recap of what was most interesting that day. I will limit it to three bullet points. Today: 1) Republicans Sabotaging

Welcome to the PredictWise Daily 20180624. My goal is to write Sundays through Thursdays, publish around 9 PM ET. It will be a short recap of what was most interesting that day. I will limit it to three bullet points. Today: 1) Republicans Hate

President Trump talks a lot about undocumented immigrants and does horrible things to them including: ripping children from their parents and putting them in cages, and trying to deport Dreamers and their parents. But while he uses his executive power to reek havoc on

Above and beyond anything in this column: the Republican immigration policy of separating children from their parents and putting them into cages is abhorrent morally and a terrible policy for the United States. It is a political policy that is designed to be so

On Friday, June 15, 2018 President Trump’s Campaign Chair was sent to jail until his trial. (1) It is very common in the United States to be in jail between arrest and trial: approximately 536,000 people are in jail, right now,

Every day people (i.e., trolls) tweet at me about how President Trump did not collude with and/or is not compromised to Russia (and/or another foreign power). Reminding everyone of the overwhelming amount of evidence of the relationship between Team Trump and

This is the fourth, and final, piece of our series, Evolution of Polling Samples from RDD to RDE In part 1: we describe a polling industry that is ripe for transformation as Random Digit Dialing (RDD) becomes increasingly tenuous. In part 2: we discuss

This is the first piece of our series, Evolution of Polling Samples from RDD to RDE In part 2: we discuss Online Panels which are increasingly replacing RDD. In part 3: we discuss Assisted Crowdsourcing, a brand-new form of polling. In part 4: we

This is the second piece of our series, Evolution of Polling Samples from RDD to RDE In part 1: we describe a polling industry that is ripe for transformation as Random Digit Dialing (RDD) becomes increasingly tenuous. In part 3: we discuss  Assisted Crowdsourcing,

President Trump is a racist. His racism is meaningful beyond the vulgarity of a racist president: it affects his policy. US immigration policy is certainty affected by Trump’s view that African countries are “shitholes”. President Trump created a committee to

President Trump is going to fail in any trade negotiations because he is a terrible negotiator. But, even more important in this case, he literally does not understand trade, which makes it very hard to do well in a negotiation. Trump is a bad

This is the third piece of our series, Evolution of Polling Samples from RDD to RDE In part 1: we describe a polling industry that is ripe for transformation as Random Digit Dialing (RDD) becomes increasingly tenuous. In part 2: we discuss issues involved

Cambridge Analytica’s external validation is a PNAS paper by Matz et al. that Dean Eckles, Bertt Gordon, and Garrett Johnson (Eckles et al.) just showed is NOT valid in letter to PNAS (yes, that is how science is done, with a letter

The media is too willing to report what people say their policies will do, rather than what their policies actually do. One clear example is so-called-Pro-Life policies. The “pro-life” policies will, without question: increase the number of abortions, increase the rate of

A lot has been written about Trump Democrats – anecdote upon anecdote of who they are, and what their daily life looks like. For example, in this New York Times story, we learn that Sharla Baker, herself an Obama-Trump voter, “rises early, drives

Every day people (i.e., trolls) tweet at me about how President Trump did not collude with and/or is not compromised to Russia (and/or another foreign power). Reminding everyone of the overwhelming amount of evidence of the relationship between Team Trump and