NCAA Tournament Day 4

Live Tables: Today's Games *..* Tournament Winner At 9:30 AM ET on March 20, here are all of today's games. I have ordered them by the likelihood of the lower seed winning.The higher seeded team is favored to win every game today. The most likely "upset" is #14 Stephen F. Austin over #6 Notre Dame. The potential Read more

Fed Expectations and Bond Rates

Getting off zero in December, Yellen promised a very gradual tightening cycle. All concerned agreed that rates would remain “low for longer.” Just how low and for how long was the real question and on that question there was substantial disagreement between the Fed and the bond market. After the lift-off, the market was pricing Read more

Missouri is Tight, Convention even Tighter?

Thanks to David Rothschild for giving me this opportunity to post on the PredictWise blog in the most interesting presidential election season of my adult life. First let’s revisit Missouri which held its primary on Tuesday. The markets predicted a close election but to be this extremely close in both parties is quite amazing. On Read more

NCAA Tournament Day 3

Live Tables: Today's Games *..* Tournament Winner At 9:30 AM ET on March 19, here are all of today's games. I have ordered them by the likelihood of the lower seed winning. Ignore the first game, because that has yet to settle in the market, but #11 Wichita State and #11 Gonzaga are both favored, not leaning Read more

Naive Conditional Probability

There are a linty of reasons why you cannot just divide the probability of victory in the general election by the probability of victory in the primary and get the conditional probability of candidate winning the general elections on their nomination. First, these values are both imprecise. Second, things change conditional on nomination (i.e., there Read more

NCAA Basketball Day 2

Live Tables: Today's Games *..* Tournament Winner At 10:30 AM ET on March 18, here are all of today's games. I have ordered them by the likelihood of the lower seed winning. A lot better seeding today with only #10 VCU at 64% expected to upset (along with #9 Cincinnati, but since all 4 #9 were Read more

NCAA Basketball Day 1

Live Tables: Today's Games *..* Tournament Winner At 9:30 AM ET on March 17, here are all of today's games. I have ordered them by the likelihood of the lower seed winning. We have just four lower seeds favored to win today with #9 Butler, Connecticut, and Providence leading the way. I like to think Read more

March 15 Recap

The ten March 15 primaries (5 Democratic and 5 Republican) went just as expected, if you were following the prediction markets. On March 14 the market-based predictions for the Republicans were: Donald Trump 86% for Florida, Trump 73% for IL, Trump 54% for Missouri, Trump 99% for North Carolina, and John Kasich 71% for Ohio. At the same time Read more

Contested Election Thoughts

There is a 46% chance of a second ballot. There is 74% likelihood that Donald Trump wins the nomination, 13% for Ted Cruz, and 11% for John Kasich. Assume that Trump is the only person that can win nomination on the first ballot. Here is a quick and dirty estimate to consider: 54% that Trump Read more