NCAA Basketball Day 1

Live Tables: Today's Games *..* Tournament Winner At 9:30 AM ET on March 17, here are all of today's games. I have ordered them by the likelihood of the lower seed winning. We have just four lower seeds favored to win today with #9 Butler, Connecticut, and Providence leading the way. I like to think Read more

March 15 Recap

The ten March 15 primaries (5 Democratic and 5 Republican) went just as expected, if you were following the prediction markets. On March 14 the market-based predictions for the Republicans were: Donald Trump 86% for Florida, Trump 73% for IL, Trump 54% for Missouri, Trump 99% for North Carolina, and John Kasich 71% for Ohio. At the same time Read more

Contested Election Thoughts

There is a 46% chance of a second ballot. There is 74% likelihood that Donald Trump wins the nomination, 13% for Ted Cruz, and 11% for John Kasich. Assume that Trump is the only person that can win nomination on the first ballot. Here is a quick and dirty estimate to consider: 54% that Trump Read more

Michigan Democrat Primary

Hillary Clinton was favored to win the Michigan primary. She lost. She was 90% on PredictWise and >99% on FiveThirtyEight. At the same time Clinton was favored to win the Mississippi primary at 99%. Michigan and Mississippi had about the same polling average. My lesson is simple. If a candidate is winning the polling by Read more

March 8 Primary Elections

The Democratic primary elections are the easier ones to predict for tomorrow. Hillary Clinton is heavily favored at 90% for Michigan and 99% for Mississippi. The Republican primary elections are much tighter. The Hawaii Caucus is wide open with Marco Rubio still slightly favored at 40%, but Ted Cruz is 30% and Donald Trump at Read more

Recap of March 5

Yesterday, March 5, 2016 was a decent day for Donald Trump, a very good day for Ted Cruz, and very bad day for Marco Rubio. 1) Trump was expected to win three state, but lost Maine to Cruz. Obviously never good to fall short of expectations. But, he did hold onto Louisiana and Kentucky. And, Read more

March 5 and 6 Primaries

Here is your 2 PM ET update on what to expect today and tomorrow's primary elections. 1) Right now Trump 73%, Rubio 12%, Cruz 9%, and Kasich 4% for the Republican nomination. 2) Kansas has Cruz at 66% to Trump 29%. But, Trump is 71% in Kentucky, 90% in Louisiana, and 69% in Maine. Rubio Read more

Recap of March 3

1) Mitt Romney's speech seems to have spooked the markets. Just as Fox News and Chris Christie warmed to the idea of endorsing Donald Trump, Romney becomes the first major GOP leader to endorse the idea of a floor fight. He encouraged people to strategically vote to block Trump from getting the majority. 2) Debate Read more