March 8 Primary Elections

The Democratic primary elections are the easier ones to predict for tomorrow. Hillary Clinton is heavily favored at 90% for Michigan and 99% for Mississippi. The Republican primary elections are much tighter. The Hawaii Caucus is wide open with Marco Rubio still slightly favored at 40%, but Ted Cruz is 30% and Donald Trump at Read more

Recap of March 5

Yesterday, March 5, 2016 was a decent day for Donald Trump, a very good day for Ted Cruz, and very bad day for Marco Rubio. 1) Trump was expected to win three state, but lost Maine to Cruz. Obviously never good to fall short of expectations. But, he did hold onto Louisiana and Kentucky. And, Read more

March 5 and 6 Primaries

Here is your 2 PM ET update on what to expect today and tomorrow's primary elections. 1) Right now Trump 73%, Rubio 12%, Cruz 9%, and Kasich 4% for the Republican nomination. 2) Kansas has Cruz at 66% to Trump 29%. But, Trump is 71% in Kentucky, 90% in Louisiana, and 69% in Maine. Rubio Read more

Recap of March 3

1) Mitt Romney's speech seems to have spooked the markets. Just as Fox News and Chris Christie warmed to the idea of endorsing Donald Trump, Romney becomes the first major GOP leader to endorse the idea of a floor fight. He encouraged people to strategically vote to block Trump from getting the majority. 2) Debate Read more

March 5 and 6 Primaries

All primaries through March 15 updated here. On March 5-6 there will be five Republican primary contests. As of 9 PM ET on Thursday, March 3 (right as the GOP debate starts) Donald Trump is leading in Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine. Marco Rubio is leading in Puerto Rico and Ted Cruz is leading in Kansas. Trump Read more

Super Tuesday – Live Blog

1:16 PM ET: Live predictions are here in table form and here in chart form! 1:15 PM ET: Here are predictions as of 12:00 PM ET on Super Tuesday. Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are in for big wins. Clinton is going to lose VT and has a fight in OK, MN, and MA. Trump Read more

Fundamental Models and 2016 Presidential Election 2

This is a slightly updated post from yesterday (but the main results are relatively unchanged). As of 5 PM ET on Monday, February 29, prediction markets move the fundamental model upward about 1.3 percentage points in expected vote share for each contested Electoral College election. I have run my presidential fundamental model (the underlying academic paper is Read more

Fundamental Models and 2016 Presidential Election

Prediction markets move the fundamental model upward about 15 percentage points for each contested Electoral College election. I have run my presidential fundamental model (the underlying academic paper is joint work with Patrick Hummel) and posted the results on the PredictWise Presidential General Election forecast page. The key takeaway is that the fundamental model predicts a Read more

State of election markets: 254 Days

On Saturday, February 20 Trump won the South Carolina primary and Marco Rubio came in second. This expected, but (1) Trump won bigger than expected, (2) with was pretty devastating for Ted Cruz. If Cruz had any reach, he would have taken, at least, second in South Carolina. On Tuesday, February 23 Trump won the Read more