New Hampshire Recap

New Hampshire happened exactly as expected with Donald Trump and John Kasich finishing first and second in the Republican primary and Bernie Sanders winning the Democratic primary. The only suspense and surprise came in the strength of Kasich's finish and the order of the remaining candidates. 1) Marco Rubio's finish is a failure and a Read more

2016 Super Bowl

[chart table-id=1626] 9:34 PM ET: Start of 4th quarter, 16-7 Broncos, Broncos with the ball. Broncos 78% to win over Panthers. 8:40 PM ET: Broncos 52% to win at halftime. They are up 13-7. 8:11 PM ET: Panthers 52% at 2 min warning of 1st half. Down 7-13 with 1:55 and the ball at their own 18. Read more

Iowas Caucus Night

This table will update every 5 minutes all night … [table table-id=1612] [table table-id=1613] 11:23 PM ET: Markets now at 98% for Clinton to (barely) carry IA 11:11 PM ET: Trump is still favored in NH for GOP, but Rubio & Cruz both up a little. Not much movement in NH on the DEM side; Sanders Read more

Trump v. Rubio for GOP Nomination

It is looking increasingly like Donald Trump will win the race for the non-establishment candidate and Marco Rubio is poised to seize the race for the establishment candidate (although there is still a lot more uncertainty there). This seems like a shocking turn of events over the last few days, unless, of course you have been Read more

A Modest Proposal for PredictIt

On December 1, 2015 PredictIt made a huge structural change that immediately made their exchange more efficient. Rajiv Sethi explained this problem really nicely on his blog. In short, many markets have more than two possible contracts (i.e., possible winners). An example is the winner of the Republican nomination where there are many possible winners. When Read more

Pollfish – Public Opinion Polling – 1/26/2016

We are collaborating with Pollfish on some public opinion polling! Click here for the permanent home. Key findings this week: 1) This survey was 21 days after the last one and there was a meaningful increase in the amount of people taking the strong Republican position on average, but no noticeable change in the amount of people Read more

Trump's Lead v. Clinton's Lead

Donald Trump is dominating the Republican polls, both nationally and state-by-state, but is still under 50% to get the nomination. Hillary Clinton is dominating the national Democratic polls, but is in a tight state-by-state battle with Bernie Sanders; she is 81% to get the nomination. Why the difference? 1) Trump is 37% nationally to 17% Read more