Bloomberg for President?

Michael Bloomberg announced that he may run. Currently he is trading at about 1-2% to be president; this value is unconditional, so would likely go up, should he run. I see how Michael Bloomberg could get upwards of 20% or more of the popular vote for president of the United States, but it is really Read more

Pollfish – Public Opinion Polling – 1/5/2016

We are collaborating with Pollfish on some public opinion polling! Click here for the permanent home. Key findings this week: 1) The tide has certainly shifted on gay rights; protecting individuals on the basis of their sexual orientation is popular. But, less generally understood, the general voting population has very strong support, across the board, for Read more


As the 2016 campaign (finally) enters the voting phase, pundits start asking (and answering) the question of who is the most electable in the general election. The reason is that it is rational for voters to vote strategically. Ultimately what a voter wants is to help elect the candidate that give them the most utility. Read more

Republican Primary from 1/1/15 to 1/18/16

As we are just a few weeks away from the first votes of the 2016 campaign, here is a look back at the 2016 campaign in 2015! A few keys points: 1) Bush and Rubio basically traded off value as it the markets assumed that an establishment candidate would ultimately win. 2) Trump and Cruz Read more

Amendments to US Constitution

Update: I will agree with a reader who suggested that a form of "instant runoff" or "preferential voting" would be much better than an actual runoff for the senate or presidential elections. It is done at scale in Australia. The first ballot counts everyone's votes and, if no majority is reached, the candidate with the Read more

2016 Golden Globes – Predictions

Please bookmark for updating probabilities during tonight's Golden Globes. Below is the prediction market-based predictions – in this case derived completely from Betfair data. Compared with the Oscars there is a lot more uncertainty. The reason is obvious, by the time we get to the Oscars we have already seen all of the other Read more