Amendments to US Constitution

Update: I will agree with a reader who suggested that a form of "instant runoff" or "preferential voting" would be much better than an actual runoff for the senate or presidential elections. It is done at scale in Australia. The first ballot counts everyone's votes and, if no majority is reached, the candidate with the Read more

2016 Golden Globes – Predictions

Please bookmark for updating probabilities during tonight's Golden Globes. Below is the prediction market-based predictions – in this case derived completely from Betfair data. Compared with the Oscars there is a lot more uncertainty. The reason is obvious, by the time we get to the Oscars we have already seen all of the other Read more

State of election markets: 310 Days

Welcome to 2016! The Republican primary was reasonably quiet again this week, as we finally entered the actual year of 2016. Polling front-runner Donald Trump continued to vow that he would invest more money into television advertisement. Market front-runner Marco Rubio managed to stay out of the news for another week. Look for serious movement Read more

State of election markets: 324 Days

There was some meaningful movement in the Republican primary this week as (market) front-runner Marco Rubio failed to consolidate support for yet another week and (market) second-place Ted Cruz continued to gain in the polls Iowa, the crucial test of the non-establishment. Meanwhile, Republican (polling) front-runner Donald Trump held somewhat steady, but fell into third Read more