A Modest Proposal for PredictIt

On December 1, 2015 PredictIt made a huge structural change that immediately made their exchange more efficient. Rajiv Sethi explained this problem really nicely on his blog. In short, many markets have more than two possible contracts (i.e., possible winners). An example is the winner of the Republican nomination where there are many possible winners. When Read more

Pollfish – Public Opinion Polling – 1/26/2016

We are collaborating with Pollfish on some public opinion polling! Click here for the permanent home. Key findings this week: 1) This survey was 21 days after the last one and there was a meaningful increase in the amount of people taking the strong Republican position on average, but no noticeable change in the amount of people Read more

Trump's Lead v. Clinton's Lead

Donald Trump is dominating the Republican polls, both nationally and state-by-state, but is still under 50% to get the nomination. Hillary Clinton is dominating the national Democratic polls, but is in a tight state-by-state battle with Bernie Sanders; she is 81% to get the nomination. Why the difference? 1) Trump is 37% nationally to 17% Read more

Bloomberg for President?

Michael Bloomberg announced that he may run. Currently he is trading at about 1-2% to be president; this value is unconditional, so would likely go up, should he run. I see how Michael Bloomberg could get upwards of 20% or more of the popular vote for president of the United States, but it is really Read more

Pollfish – Public Opinion Polling – 1/5/2016

We are collaborating with Pollfish on some public opinion polling! Click here for the permanent home. Key findings this week: 1) The tide has certainly shifted on gay rights; protecting individuals on the basis of their sexual orientation is popular. But, less generally understood, the general voting population has very strong support, across the board, for Read more

Electability

As the 2016 campaign (finally) enters the voting phase, pundits start asking (and answering) the question of who is the most electable in the general election. The reason is that it is rational for voters to vote strategically. Ultimately what a voter wants is to help elect the candidate that give them the most utility. Read more

Republican Primary from 1/1/15 to 1/18/16

As we are just a few weeks away from the first votes of the 2016 campaign, here is a look back at the 2016 campaign in 2015! A few keys points: 1) Bush and Rubio basically traded off value as it the markets assumed that an establishment candidate would ultimately win. 2) Trump and Cruz Read more

Amendments to US Constitution

Update: I will agree with a reader who suggested that a form of "instant runoff" or "preferential voting" would be much better than an actual runoff for the senate or presidential elections. It is done at scale in Australia. The first ballot counts everyone's votes and, if no majority is reached, the candidate with the Read more