The predictions on PredictWise (especially the politics page) are not abstract. Elections have real-world consequences. The election on Thursday, June 23 to decide if the United Kingdom of great Britain and Northern Ireland stays in the European Union is a great example. If the UK votes to leave the EU it is likely that the EU and UK would have financial upheaval. The EU is already struggling with debt issues (remember Greece?). And, the UK barely escaped losing Scotland last year. So, what we can say about the impact of Brexit?


Above is the chart of the exchange rate between the UK Pound and the US Dollar with the probability of the UK staying in the EU; while they traded rather independently up through mid-April, the exchange rate is almost pegged to the probability of the UK staying in the EU for the last two months. Elections matter.