MSN Polling: Shifts in Interest

I continue to enjoy exploring MSN's polling module, and we have done some very interesting work in 2018 learning how the polling data can enhance understanding of the MSN users. But, MSN polling also offers one simple and exciting attribute: the ability to do repeated, fast polling, at scale. For about 30 minutes each week, Read more

PredictWise Calibrated Polling

  Horse Race with PredictWise methodology As you have seen elsewhere, PredictWise's track record when it comes to horse race predictions is, to say the least, very good. In general, there is a number of key cornerstones to successful predictions, we believe: Our data collection, based on Random Device Engagement, meaning that we target Ad IDs on Read more

Progressive Pendulum: Rescuing Robeson County

This is part 12 of the PredictWise series on congressional districts that are seen as competitive in the 2018 election according to PredictWise and Cook: The PredictWise Progressive Pendulum, with new entries coming right here on PredictWise every Tuesday. Instead of the ins-and-outs of the horse-race, this series sheds light on the ideological landscape in these districts. Read more

How will they vote? Dissecting Directional Vote among Hispanics

2010-2016: The Republicanization of the Hispanic vote Given President Trump's late-cycle appeal to immigration hardliners, it is surprising that Hispanics are only a second order priority for Democratic campaigns. Latino Decisions, in conducting a tracking poll for the bipartisan National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials (NALEO), concludes that only 6 out of 10 Hispanic eligible Read more

Progressive Pendulum: Kindling Key West

This is part 11 of the PredictWise series on congressional districts that are seen as competitive in the 2018 election according to PredictWise and Cook: The PredictWise Progressive Pendulum, with new entries coming right here on PredictWise every Tuesday. Instead of the ins-and-outs of the horse-race, this series sheds light on the ideological landscape in these districts. Read more

Progressive Pendulum: Bringing Bakersfield to the Good Side

This is part 10 of the PredictWise series on congressional districts that are seen as competitive in the 2018 election according to PredictWise and Cook: The PredictWise Progressive Pendulum, with new entries coming right here on PredictWise every Tuesday. Instead of the ins-and-outs of the horse-race, this series sheds light on the ideological landscape in these districts. Read more

Democratic House Control and Misplaced Enthusiasm

We have seen a lot of midterm polls, and to be frank, they look darn good for Democrats: YouGov at Dem +8, PEW at +10, there is even this Quinnipiac poll, at Dem +14. OK, those are all generic ballot polls, and asking if likely voters will vote for "the Democratic or Republican candidate" has only Read more

NowThis Poll: Investigate Rape Allegations

We recently did some polling for NowThis on Judge Kavanaugh. The poll was conducted on Friday, September 21, so it misses some recent allegations, but is still extremely relevant. Here is the full data. Let us start with the toplines. Young people state they are less likely to vote than older people: they are actually Read more