Progressive Pendulum: Bringing Bakersfield to the Good Side

This is part 10 of the PredictWise series on congressional districts that are seen as competitive in the 2018 election according to PredictWise and Cook: The PredictWise Progressive Pendulum, with new entries coming right here on PredictWise every Tuesday. Instead of the ins-and-outs of the horse-race, this series sheds light on the ideological landscape in these districts. Read more

Democratic House Control and Misplaced Enthusiasm

We have seen a lot of midterm polls, and to be frank, they look darn good for Democrats: YouGov at Dem +8, PEW at +10, there is even this Quinnipiac poll, at Dem +14. OK, those are all generic ballot polls, and asking if likely voters will vote for "the Democratic or Republican candidate" has only Read more

NowThis Poll: Investigate Rape Allegations

We recently did some polling for NowThis on Judge Kavanaugh. The poll was conducted on Friday, September 21, so it misses some recent allegations, but is still extremely relevant. Here is the full data. Let us start with the toplines. Young people state they are less likely to vote than older people: they are actually Read more

The Progressive Pendulum: Helping Hunterdon County

This is part 9 of the PredictWise series on congressional districts that are seen as competitive in the 2018 election according to PredictWise and Cook: The PredictWise Progressive Pendulum, with new entries coming right here on PredictWise every Tuesday. Instead of the ins-and-outs of the horse-race, this series sheds light on the ideological landscape in these districts. Read more

You should care about corruption

President Trump is corrupt. Trump Organization is a basically a money laundering scheme, and Trump's lawyer/fixer (Michael Cohen) and Campaign Chair (Paul Manafort) are both guilty felons for various tax and financial crimes. So lets talk about why a corrupt president is so bad: (1) Corrupt person is easily susceptible to Blackmail (2) Corruption begets More Read more

Real News: Alex Jones is Bad, but Donald Trump is Worse

Alex Jones is a despicable person who does despicable things including starting crazy conspiracy theories that undermine our democracy, targeting groups of people with hate speech, and singling out innocent and, frequently, grieving people with targeted harassment. After Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey defended Alex Jones (before Twitter decided today to partially suspend him for a week), Read more

PredictWise Daily 20180723: Do not repeat lies!

Welcome to the PredictWise Daily 20180723: 1) President Trump lied a lot today, about a lot of things. Important to remind everyone to not repeat his lies. If you need to report on his statements, try: President Trump lied a lot today, about a lot of things. 2) Republican administration is a healthy mix of cruelty Read more

Democratic Party has never been more united over policy

For decades Democratic politicians have advanced economic policy positions (on: taxes, social safety net like healthcare, shelter, food, and money) several steps to right of Democratic voters. Actually, on many issues they were to the right of Republican voters. Below is handy, oversimplified graphic of where Democratic and Republican voters and politicians were/are on key Read more

1.5 years of President Trump

President Trump published this list of accomplishments on his 500th day in office early last month, let's revisit it through a more critical lens: 1) American economy is still humming along, despite the best efforts of President Trump to undermine it with a stupid trade war. Trump cites job numbers which are clearly just moving Read more