PredictWise Daily 20180718: Russia is not a good ally

Welcome to the PredictWise Daily 20180718: 1) Serious people need to accept end-game of Trump Doctrine: he wants to shift United States from security agreement with Canada and Europe to one with Russia. There needs to be public debate on how incredibly stupid this is for US security and prosperity. 2) Republican leadership is really into callous Read more

Republican Trump Doctrine: Security Agreement with Russia

Serious people in media and politics need to accept what Republican President Trump is clearly demonstrating with his actions and implicitly stating with his words: he wants to shift the United States from a security agreement with Canada and Europe to one with Russia. 1) Republican President Trump wants to sever United States security agreements with Read more

PredictWise Daily 20180716: Putin is tired of so much #winning

Welcome to the PredictWise Daily 20180716: 1) President Trump/Republicans want Russia to defeat US in cyber-war, because investigation and defensive actions would (1) embarrass Republicans who were helped by Russia (2) cut-off further help from Russia. Think about that for a second: President of the Untied States wants US to lose ongoing war for personal Read more

PredictWise Daily 20180712: House Republicans Hate Democracy

Welcome to the PredictWise Daily 20180712: 1) House Republicans Hate Democracy (and America): trashing a FBI agent for having personal politics, while ignoring the fact the FBI did not leak information on Trump and trashed Clinton, handing Trump the election, is bad. Trying to force the FBI to compromise ongoing investigation into ongoing cyber-attack is worse. 2) Read more

PredictWise Daily 20180711: Quite the destructive path for POTUS: NATO, WTO, NAFTA, TPP, Paris, Iran etc.

Welcome to the PredictWise Daily 20180711: 1) President Trump is good at blowing good things up and terrible at building anything. Beautifully written Twitter thread by Claire Berlinski, which I will sum up as America built current world structures to provide US: dominance, security, economics. We get back many times what we pay in, but hide our Read more

PredictWise Daily 20180710: Someone needs to brief Trump

Welcome to the PredictWise Daily 20180710: 1) President Trump literally does not understand how NATO works. All nations pay dues, but they are relatively small and every nation is good. Otherwise, the goal is 2% defense budgets by 2024. So, no one owes US anything. Media is downplaying the risks that Trump may end NATO, making it Read more

World Cup: Semis

1) Quick recap of the Quarters: markets had the winner in 3 of 4 games (now 9 of 12 overall) with Brazil as the most likely to be upset, losing to Belgium. 2) Semifinals: France 54% and England 59% are both light favorites over Belgium and Croatia. 3) Finals: France would be a heavy favorite if Read more

PredictWise Daily 20180709: Blah, Blah, Blah Activist Judges

Welcome to the PredictWise Daily 20180709: 1) Old enough to remember when Republican railed against activist judges, even as Republican Supreme Court ended voting rights, worker organizing, etc. Assume that Republican concern over activist judges will fade even further with a solid 5-4 majority, versus a somewhat solid 5-4 majority. It is not just women's right, Read more

PredictWise Daily 20180708: Congress, Do your fucking job

Welcome to the PredictWise Daily 20180708: 1) Still NO Congressional hearings on (1) How Trump admin decided to start ripping children from parents and put them in cages (2) Why they were not prepared for reunification (3) What they are doing about it. No surprising, but still shocking how much Congress has abandoned its responsibility to check Read more

Partisan Asymmetry: Civility, Bipartisanship, Process, Ethics

It is impressive how Republicans, media, and Democrats hold Democrats to such high standard of civility, bipartisanship, process, and ethical standards. While, at the same time: Democrats, media, and Republicans just assume Republicans do not give a shit. 1) Civility – Fuck it: Democratic Rep. Waters asks for voters to be publicly challenge Trump cabinet Read more