Russia Collusion

Every day people (i.e., trolls) tweet at me about how President Trump did not collude with and/or is not compromised to Russia (and/or another foreign power). Reminding everyone of the overwhelming amount of evidence of the relationship between Team Trump and Russia is boring, but important. So, here is a post that I will keep Read more

PredictWise Daily 20180705: Corruption is King

Welcome to the PredictWise Daily 20180705: 1) Trump administration is historic. Trump corruption is even worse. But, Democrats are not going to win on that: Scott Pruitt stepped down today from EPA after breaking records for breadth of corruption (if not depth) for a cabinet level leader. Price was forced out of HHS for corruption, Shulkin, VET, was Read more

Fox News is Not a News Organization

There seems to be a lot of confusion among journalists why President Trump's base, Republicans in general, remain loyal to him despite the cruelty, incompetence, and corruption of his administration. Obviously, the relatively consistent economy and lack of major wars matter: he is shockingly unpopular with the general public relative to his fundamentals. But, the other Read more

World Cup: Quarters

1) Quick recap of Round of Sixteen: markets had winner in 6 of 8 games, with Russia in a big upset over Spain and Sweden a narrow underdog beating Switzerland. 2) Quarterfinals (probabilities will update in real-time here): England is 68% over Sweden, France is 67% over Uruguay, Croatia is 62% over Russia, and Brazil 61% Read more

PredictWise Daily 20180704: Declaration of Independence

Welcome to the PredictWise Daily 20180704: "When in the Course of human events it becomes necessary for one people to dissolve the political bands which have connected them with another and to assume among the powers of the earth, the separate and equal station to which the Laws of Nature and of Nature's God entitle Read more

Bashful Antisemites

I will block two types of tweeters, people who send: (1) death threats and (2) Irrelevant, ad hominem, antisemitic attacks. I still believe that Twitter can be used to talk with people with different view. As people as ask me questions about things I have written, I try to reply and engage. Hopefully, blocking a Read more

PredictWise Daily 20180703: Trump is the Swamp

Welcome to the PredictWise Daily 20180703: 1) Republican plan to undermine the Census may get stopped: New York Attorney General Underwood, "In a major win for our office, a judge just found “strong” evidence the Trump admin acted in bad faith in adding a citizenship question to the Census—and ordered the federal govt to produce Read more

PredictWise Daily 20180702: There is no deal with North Korea

Welcome to the PredictWise Daily 20180702: 1) There is no deal with North Korea, just concessions for nothing: President Trump met with leader of North Korea giving him photo-ops he wanted and agreed to suspect joint-exercises with South Korea. Then Trump claimed North Korea was denuclearizing, but North Korea is building more facilities proving Trump got nothing Read more

Post Mortem: 27th Congressional District in Texas

TX-27 Special Elections: TapResearch/PredictWise predict winner correctly, and two-party vote share among leading candidates very well.   TapResearch and PredictWise ran a poll in TX-27 before the special election to replace Blake Farenthold (yes, this guy below who resigned in disgrace over an ethics investigation and allegations of sexually harassing staffers, and likes to wear, Read more

World Cup: Round of Sixteen

The World Cup market-data page now includes the market-prices for getting to each round. These will update in real-time as games progress, but a few things: 1) Round of Sixteen: Uruguay 50% over Portugal 50%, France 59% over Argentina 41%, Brazil 79% over Mexico 21%, Belgium 85% over Japan 15%, Spain 78% over Russia 22%, Read more