World Cup: Semis

1) Quick recap of the Quarters: markets had the winner in 3 of 4 games (now 9 of 12 overall) with Brazil as the most likely to be upset, losing to Belgium. 2) Semifinals: France 54% and England 59% are both light favorites over Belgium and Croatia. 3) Finals: France would be a heavy favorite if Read more

PredictWise Daily 20180709: Blah, Blah, Blah Activist Judges

Welcome to the PredictWise Daily 20180709: 1) Old enough to remember when Republican railed against activist judges, even as Republican Supreme Court ended voting rights, worker organizing, etc. Assume that Republican concern over activist judges will fade even further with a solid 5-4 majority, versus a somewhat solid 5-4 majority. It is not just women's right, Read more

PredictWise Daily 20180708: Congress, Do your fucking job

Welcome to the PredictWise Daily 20180708: 1) Still NO Congressional hearings on (1) How Trump admin decided to start ripping children from parents and put them in cages (2) Why they were not prepared for reunification (3) What they are doing about it. No surprising, but still shocking how much Congress has abandoned its responsibility to check Read more

Partisan Asymmetry: Civility, Bipartisanship, Process, Ethics

It is impressive how Republicans, media, and Democrats hold Democrats to such high standard of civility, bipartisanship, process, and ethical standards. While, at the same time: Democrats, media, and Republicans just assume Republicans do not give a shit. 1) Civility – Fuck it: Democratic Rep. Waters asks for voters to be publicly challenge Trump cabinet Read more

Russia Collusion

Every day people (i.e., trolls) tweet at me about how President Trump did not collude with and/or is not compromised to Russia (and/or another foreign power). Reminding everyone of the overwhelming amount of evidence of the relationship between Team Trump and Russia is boring, but important. So, here is a post that I will keep Read more

PredictWise Daily 20180705: Corruption is King

Welcome to the PredictWise Daily 20180705: 1) Trump administration is historic. Trump corruption is even worse. But, Democrats are not going to win on that: Scott Pruitt stepped down today from EPA after breaking records for breadth of corruption (if not depth) for a cabinet level leader. Price was forced out of HHS for corruption, Shulkin, VET, was Read more

Fox News is Not a News Organization

There seems to be a lot of confusion among journalists why President Trump's base, Republicans in general, remain loyal to him despite the cruelty, incompetence, and corruption of his administration. Obviously, the relatively consistent economy and lack of major wars matter: he is shockingly unpopular with the general public relative to his fundamentals. But, the other Read more

World Cup: Quarters

1) Quick recap of Round of Sixteen: markets had winner in 6 of 8 games, with Russia in a big upset over Spain and Sweden a narrow underdog beating Switzerland. 2) Quarterfinals (probabilities will update in real-time here): England is 68% over Sweden, France is 67% over Uruguay, Croatia is 62% over Russia, and Brazil 61% Read more

PredictWise Daily 20180704: Declaration of Independence

Welcome to the PredictWise Daily 20180704: "When in the Course of human events it becomes necessary for one people to dissolve the political bands which have connected them with another and to assume among the powers of the earth, the separate and equal station to which the Laws of Nature and of Nature's God entitle Read more

Bashful Antisemites

I will block two types of tweeters, people who send: (1) death threats and (2) Irrelevant, ad hominem, antisemitic attacks. I still believe that Twitter can be used to talk with people with different view. As people as ask me questions about things I have written, I try to reply and engage. Hopefully, blocking a Read more