Arizona 8 Close, but Democrat Trailing

PredictWise/Pollfish Poll for AZ8 (Pollfish and PredictWise) has Republican Debbie Lesko up 6 percentage points over Democrat Hiral Tipirneni in the Arizona's 8th District Special Election. We will put the normal caveats that this poll is not as powered as we normally do, but it is the third special Congressional election we have run, and we have been Read more

Regrets, I have had a few

I was getting my PhD in the Business and Public Policy (now call Applied Economics) program at the University of Pennsylvania, when my adviser, Justin Wolfers, got me really into prediction markets (markets that buy and sell contracts on upcoming events, thus created a revealed probability of the outcome). And, as I started learning about how they Read more

Modest Proposal: Democrats Run on Positive Progressive Message

Establishment Democrats have a plan for 2018: nationally unify around an anti-Trump message and then micro-target policy positions by: district and tightly defined demographic clusters. This is not a stated plan, if you asked them I am sure they would claim to have a positive progressive message, but their strategy is very clear from what Read more

DCCC Economic Memo Generally Agrees with US

New Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) polling generally agrees with this earlier post. The memo is written by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (GQR) and, for the sake of this post, I will ignore the incredibly stupid and offensive article by Axios. Both GQR and PredictWise agree that the economy is doing fine and Democrats should not try Read more

Democratic Party Has a Message Failure

We ran a poll (PredictWise20180328), on March 27 with 1,000 likely American voters (methods), where we asked policy questions in four different topics: healthcare, taxes, gun control, and immigration. We did focus on detailed policy questions stripped (as much as we can) of partisan cues (e.g., Do you support a universal national registry of all guns and Read more

Data and Messaging around Race and Education

There are two separate issues covered in Thomas Edsall's Thursday, March 30, 2018 article in the New York Times. First, exit polls have problems with race and education. Certainty true, but not exactly as the author describes. Second, Democrats have problems messaging race and education. Certainty true, but not exactly as the author describes. Data: Read more


9:32 PM ET: NYT dial is down! But, markets are still working. Democrat holding steady at 75% to win: [chart table-id=1885] [table table-id=1885] 8:03 PM ET: Polls are closed and Democrat is 75% to win. 7:02 PM ET: NYT dial is at the ready: 5:35 PM ET: Our polling had the Democrat, Conor Lamb, Read more


In the week before the vote (March 5-11, 2018) we ran an under-powered survey in Pennsylvania's 18th district (using Pollfish's polling mobile-app-based audience and our standard analytics). Since we were just shy of 150 responses, we cannot put much stock in the headline number: We have Democrat Conor Lamb up by 1 percentage point over Read more

PredictWise Relaunch

Since the 2016 election, we at PredictWise have worked on a serious relaunch of PredictWise 2.0, also known as the PredictWise Public Opinion Engine – in stealth, reflecting the new political reality we face today. Here is the short of it: Our engine turns state-of-the-art behavioral data + polling + analytics into uniquely fast, accurate, Read more

Messaging Healthcare

The Republicans control all three branches of the US government and the rate of Americans uninsured for healthcare is going up, after years of decline under President Obama. The Democrats appear somewhat shy about backing meaningful healthcare reform if/when they get back into power: I think they should be bold. It will help them get Read more