The Progressive Pendulum: Liberating Lancaster

This is part 8 of the PredictWise series on congressional districts that are seen as competitive in the 2018 election according to PredictWise and Cook: The PredictWise Progressive Pendulum, with new entries coming right here on PredictWise every Tuesday. Instead of the ins-and-outs of the horse-race, this series sheds light on the ideological landscape in these districts. Read more

PredictWise Relaunch

Since the 2016 election, we at PredictWise have worked on a serious relaunch of PredictWise 2.0, also known as the PredictWise Public Opinion Engine – in stealth, reflecting the new political reality we face today. Here is the short of it: Our engine turns state-of-the-art behavioral data + polling + analytics into uniquely fast, accurate, Read more

Oscars 2018

11:49 PM ET: 20 of 24! Oscars are really good demonstration of when prediction markets work: idiosyncratic data and dispersed information. For the record, counting Picture as a loss, but The Shape of Water moved ahead mid-Oscars! 11:34 PM ET: 20 of 23 heading into final award, Best Picture. The Shape of Water is now Read more

Party switching – the Case for Racial Resentment

A lot has been written about the relationship of racial resentment and support for President Trump. As Michael Tesler has noted in this blog, views on race have mattered more in electing Trump than Obama, perhaps because they have funneled a feeling of white vulnerability. If, as The Nation writes, the phenomenon Trump has “accelerated Read more

When do moderate Republicans flip? – Lessons Big Data can Teach Us

In the 2016 presidential campaign, Big Data had almost become an antiquated term. At least since Sasha Issenberg’s romanticized account of Obama’s win in the 2008 election fueled by war rooms stacked with high-powered machines, the idea of data scientists informing major campaign decisions based on data voodoo generated in windowless caves  has been omnipresent Read more

Americans very divided on Trump's: appropriateness, competence, corruption, and work ethic

Democrats are wondering where to go after Trump on: appropriateness, competence, corruption, and work ethic. The answer is that people are evenly divided on these topics. Republicans support him and Democrats oppose him. Yet, there are some key points. Poll was run by PredictWise with Pollfish on May 22, 2017. 1) Biggest difference is on appropriateness, Read more

Montana still likely to go Republican

This is from a poll we ran today from 12 PM MT to 7 PM MT. Rushing out the results before the polls close at 8 PM MT: 1) GOP Gianforte went from +12 in our May 19 poll to +5.5 on May 25. Still likely to win, but now much tighter. Of course, Gianforte Read more

Tax Cuts for Rich

Two key issues for 2017 are healthcare and taxes. What do people want and what do they know? Poll was run by PredictWise with Pollfish on May 1, 2017. The people want more healthcare coverage, but many know that Trump/GOP is offering them less. 51 percent of Democrats and 26 percent of Republicans know that Read more

Oscars 2017

OK – make that 17 for 24 … just as predicted! 18 for 24. Not bad. Had me worried, but data worked out. Off to bed! One left! Now 17 of 23. Expected 17 with initial probabilities pretty low this year, but hoping to round up to 18. Would be a great comeback for the Read more