Fundamental Model Amazing

On February 28, 2016 I released my fundamental model for the state-by-state presidential election. The model, using incumbency, presidential approval, economic indicators, and past voting had the Republican getting 292 Electoral Votes and the Democratic candidate 246. The final vote tally (assuming no stray electors) will be 306 to 232 … I (along with co-author Read more

Trump tax plan would shock Trump voters

Two key pillars of President-elect Donald Trump’s economic plans are lower taxes and regulations; these have been the twin pillars of the Republican economic policy for decades. While people sort of like the ideas, they are not enthusiastic of the what this actually means. This article relies on the results from the latest PredictWise/Pollfish Poll Read more

Obamacare is very popular

The media narrative around the Affordable Care Act, also known as Obamacare, is badly misleading. If we were to believe that narrative, Obamacare is unpopular. This is true insofar as more people say they do not support it than support it. But, some people do not support it because it does not go far enough Read more

Public v. Private Polling

In 2016 I worked with two very different types of data sources: public and private. I used public polling and prediction markets data to predict the outcome of the 51 Electoral College (46 or 47 of 51), 34 Senatorial (31 or 32 of 34), 435 House (TBD), and 12 Gubernatorial elections (10 or 11 of 12). Read more

Day After Election Day

We missed five states (assuming Clinton wins NH and MN): WI, PA, MI were all in the mid-90's. These were big misses. FL and NC were tight predictions that went for Trump. This is, of course, little solace to those who relied on these predictions. The headline prediction was 89 percent for Clinton to win Read more

Election Day 2016

7:40 PM ET: Clinton 90% after 7:30 PM closing. Clinton is closing up her firewall. Remember, she does NOT need Florida, North Carolina, or Ohio. Basically, everything is playing out as expected. 6:30 PM ET: Clinton moves up slightly on good turnout numbers in Florida and confidence in New Hampshire. Concern over Michigan for Clinton is Read more

Election Eve 2016

On the eve of Election Day Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton is 89 percent to defeat Republican nominee Donald Trump. Clinton is 94% in CO, NV, and PA, whose combined Electoral Votes bring her to 274. She has insurance in NH 87%, FL 77%, NC 64%, and OH 33%. Any of which she has a great Read more

Election Update T-1

Clinton is 89 percent to be the next president, with Trump at 11 percent. Democrats are now 66 percent to take the Senate and 6 percent to take the House. Below is the joint probability of the different parties controlling the president, senate, and house: Honestly, pretty slow day today. A bunch of polls confirmed what I assumed Read more